There will be a “war” between China and United States But its will be a cold war or a hot war ?
One of the characteristics of the Trump administration’s foreign policy is its sharp confrontational attitude towards China. As a result, Sino-US relations have deteriorated significantly in the past four years. This deterioration is often described as the beginning of a new cold war between China and the United States.
So, does this really mean the beginning of a new cold war between China and the United States? An article on the US Military.com website attempts to answer this question.
According to the article, there is a direct relationship between China’s growing economic influence and its growing military and diplomatic influence. Based on this relationship, the Trump administration has adopted a strategy that can be called “economically contain China.” .
Under the guidance of this strategy, the Trump administration imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese goods entering the United States, restricting China’s access to the US capital market, and the White House even suggested that the United States should consider leaving the Chinese economy.
The Trump administration has also actively restricted China’s access to American technology and prevented Chinese high-tech companies from expanding globally. The most famous example is the suppression of Chinese telecom equipment giant Huawei. At the same time, it insisted that China increase its purchases of American goods, especially agricultural products, to make up for the long-standing US trade deficit with China.
In addition, the Trump administration has urged U.S. companies to move their China-centric supply chains to other places, especially commodities deemed essential, such as medicines or medical equipment. It also stated that it does not wish to embed Chinese electronic components in key defense systems and hardware. The U.S. Congress also supports subsidies to U.S. companies to help them bear the cost of shipping key products back home.
The article writes that with the rise of China, China has participated in the economic competition with the United States. The economic competition between China and the United States is different from the competition between the United States, Japan, the European Union and other countries.
First, although Japan and EU member states are economically competing with the United States, although they may seek a world trade and international economic system that is beneficial to them, they will not seek to replace the dollar-centric global financial system. Even if the euro was created as the common currency of the European Union, although it has the additional advantage of being an alternative reserve currency for the US dollar, no one has ever imagined that it will become an alternative to the US dollar.
Second, apart from China, the other major countries that the United States competes with economically are those countries that are allied with the United States militarily, and are also allied with the United States diplomatically (with some exceptions). Although economic growth and technological innovation may enhance the military capabilities of U.S. allies, this enhancement has no impact on U.S. national security.
But for the United States, China is an exception. China’s economic growth and its technological advancement directly affect China’s military capabilities and at the same time enhance its diplomatic strength. This means that China’s economic growth has a direct impact on the US defense and diplomatic posture in East Asia, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, despite the huge economic competition between China and the United States, the economic ties between the two sides are very close.
In 2019, China-US direct trade totaled US$634.8 billion, of which China’s imports to the US were US$163 billion, exports were US$471.8 billion, and the trade deficit was US$308.8 billion. The United States is China’s largest trading partner, and China is the third largest export market for the United States, after Canada and Mexico.
In addition, Chinese companies (some of which are state-owned enterprises) invested US$140.5 billion in the United States, while US companies invested US$269.6 billion in China. Chinese entities hold approximately US$1.1 trillion in US government bonds, second only to Japan’s US$1.3 trillion
The US-China economic relationship has accelerated the restoration of China’s historical status. However, if the economic relationship between China and the United States is severed and China is sought to contain China economically, it may slow down China’s rise, but it will not hinder the fact that China is rising.
The article concludes that the current relationship between the United States and China is neither a cold war nor a hot war. However, this is indeed a war-this war will be more about advanced semiconductor chip design and quantum computing protocols and other science and technology, rather than around aircraft and ships. However, no matter what the war revolves around, its important impact on the international system is inevitable.