[Restricted View of the World] U.S. Withdrawal of Burdens Exacerbates Conflict in Afghanistan
Since September, the frequency and intensity of various conflicts and terrorist attacks in Afghanistan have increased significantly. This is closely related to the irresponsible withdrawal plan of the United States.
The U.S. withdrawal has dealt a heavy blow to the Afghan government and security forces, boosted the morale of the Taliban, and stimulated the further differentiation and combination of various extremist forces and the intervention of external forces.
On October 27, the United Nations Aid Mission (UNAMA) issued a report entitled “Afghanistan peace talks failed to slow down the increase in civilian casualties”, stating that “the harm to Afghan civilians is still serious and shocking.” The recent series of conflicts and attacks have fully confirmed this judgment.
The conflict has intensified since September
After entering September, the frequency and intensity of various conflicts and terrorist attacks in Afghanistan have increased significantly.
On September 10, the convoy of Afghan First Vice President Saleh was attacked, resulting in the death of 10 civilians. In the past few days, violence occurred in 28 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. On November 1st, the governor’s residence of Kunduz Province was hit by rockets, and 5 people were injured.
The November 2 attack on Kabul University resulted in at least 19 deaths, of which 18 were students and more than 40 were injured. Although the “Islamic State” claimed the attack, Afghan First Vice President Saleh accused the Taliban of causing the incident.
This is the second attack on educational institutions in the past 10 days. On October 25, a private educational institution in Kabul was hit by a suicide bombing, killing more than 30 people, most of them students. The Afghans protested helplessly: in all parts of Afghanistan, it is inevitable to be attacked!
Against the background that all parties, including the United States, have repeatedly requested relevant parties to reduce the level of violence and achieve a ceasefire, which has truly created the premise for the internal peace talks in Afghanistan, there are still such intensive conflicts and attacks, which cast a thick layer on the prospects of the peace talks. Shadows.
All of this is closely related to the United States’ unburdened and irresponsible withdrawal plan, because this plan is essentially only serving the United States, or even serving Trump’s election goals, and its evil effects have begun to appear.
The United States and Tajikistan peace agreement became a dead letter
On February 29, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement, but the agreement has become a dead letter and created a series of new chaos, such as intensifying political contradictions within Afghanistan and intensifying competition among various forces.
The essence of the US-Taliban peace talks and agreements is the United States’ self-deception and deception. In order to bet that the Taliban can fully abide by the agreement, the United States has even adopted the strategy of “withdrawing first and respecting”, that is, completing the phased withdrawal requirements ahead of the time specified in the agreement. , In exchange for expectations for the Taliban to fulfill their promises. But “a series of fantasies conceal the ugly underlying reality that looms over the future of Afghanistan.”
The Taliban’s understanding of the agreement is the “Termination of Occupation Agreement” (Termination of Occupation Agreement), not a peace agreement propagated by the United States. In this context, the Taliban constantly put forward new demands, such as demanding the release of more Taliban prisoners.
United Nations reports have repeatedly shown that the Taliban has not severed its ties with Al-Qaida, which should have been an important guarantee for the Taliban and an important prerequisite for the withdrawal of the United States.
Recently, the Taliban have also continued to defend their various attacks and explain their understanding of the political system in Afghanistan. The Taliban believe that Afghans have two obligations: one is to expel foreign troops and force them to end their occupation of Afghanistan; the other is to rebuild an “Islamic government.”
The Afghan internal peace talks that were originally planned to begin on March 10 barely began to “meet” under American pressure on September 12, but so far the Afghan government and the Taliban have not even reached an agreement on key negotiating principles, and formal peace talks have never been able to Unfold.
Exacerbate internal conflicts in Afghanistan
Trump irresponsibly made a series of troop withdrawal remarks for political purposes, especially for the election goals, which seriously affected the security situation in Afghanistan, severely hit the Afghan government and security forces, and caused confusion and doubts among American allies. .
For example, Trump said before the election debate that US troops should withdraw from Afghanistan early this year. Although the U.S. Congress and the Department of Defense have made different interpretations of Trump’s remarks, they have aroused all kinds of suspicions and aggravated panic and confusion.
Afghanistan has not yet completed the formation of a cabinet, and the conflict between Ghani and Abdullah has only been temporarily eased. The parties have considerable disputes over the membership of the government’s negotiation team. The root of these problems lies in the manipulation of the election and political situation in Afghanistan by the United States. For its own self-interest, the United States has completely ignored the political reconstruction and security and stability of Afghanistan.
The intensification of internal conflicts not only affects the security situation, but also has a negative impact on the economy that is already impacted by the security situation and the epidemic. Afghanistan’s GDP this year is expected to decline by 5%. On the one hand, this data is the worst among all the neighboring countries of Afghanistan; on the other hand, considering Afghanistan’s economic structure, currency devaluation, inflation and other factors, ordinary people are affected by far more than 5%.
Stimulate all kinds of extreme terrorist forces
The dramatic changes in the U.S. government’s strategy in Afghanistan and various controversial remarks have repeatedly deepened the Taliban’s belief that the U.S. can’t stick to it. This not only strengthened the Taliban’s internal unity, boosted Taliban’s morale, but also made the hardliners within the Taliban have a sharp influence. expand. These people believe that since the United States can be forced to make a major historical concession on the battlefield, the strengthening of the offensive can accelerate the withdrawal of the United States and the downfall of the central government of Afghanistan.
The U.S. withdrawal plan also strengthened the determination of the “Islamic State” and other organizations to expand their attacks. They believe that as long as they persist for a long enough time, the United States will eventually succumb. The “success” of the Taliban is a typical example of their motivation.
In this context, the trend of further differentiation and combination of various types of extreme terrorist organizations is very obvious.
The U.S. withdrawal plan has also allowed some external forces to see an opportunity to fill the so-called “power vacuum.” They have increased their support and support for various forces. This has further aggravated the internal chaos in Afghanistan and may trigger a new round of agency. People war.
It has been more than eight months since the signing of the US-Tajikistan peace agreement, but the Afghan people have not only failed to truly enjoy peace, they are facing a more uncertain future. Their expectations for the peace agreement have been replaced by disappointments and complaints.
With the end of the US election, the United States is likely to continue to adjust its strategy in Afghanistan. Therefore, the future of the US-Tajikistan peace agreement and the prospects for peace talks within Afghanistan are still very uncertain.