November 27 Recently, Russia announced the expulsion of an American warship that entered Russian territorial waters in Peter the Great Bay.
From the air, sea to the ground, since 2020, the mutual reconnaissance and testing behaviors between the United States and Russia have become more and more frequent.
The military confrontation between the United States and Russia has become the norm. Will the conflict escalate as a result, and even a substantial gunfire will occur?
American ships annoy Russia
Russia warns of the use of “collision means”
The U.S. Navy’s Missile destroyer Donald Cook, with a displacement of more than 8,400 tons, has long and frequent cruised in the Black Sea waters. Six years ago, the United States sent the destroyer to the Black Sea region in the name of “Supporting NATO allies”.
In 2016, Donald Cook sailed more than 100 kilometers away from the Russian Kaliningrad. As a warning, two Russian Su-24 fighters flew over the top of the destroyer 20 times, only 9 meters away from its latest. The two sides once drew swords.
Now, the situation seems to have further escalated. On November 23, 2020, the USS Donald Cook entered the waters of the Black Sea. The reason for the United States is to “sure maritime security”, and its destroyer operation is part of NATO’s Atlantic Resolution operation. The Russian Black Sea Fleet monitored its movement.
Just a day later, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the USS John S. McCain broke into Russian territorial waters “two kilometers” in the waters of Peter the Great Bay in the Russian Far East. Later, she was intercepted by the Russian anti-submarine destroyer Admiral Vinogradov, which had been under surveillance.
The Russian ship severely warned that it “may use collision maneuvers” to drive the American ship out of the territorial waters. The U.S. ship changed its route “immediately” and sailed to the high seas without attempting to enter the Russian territorial waters.
These two incidents were interpreted by the British media as a sign of the escalation of potential maritime conflicts between Russia and the United States. The media worry that this is the precursor of the spark collision between Russia and the United States, moving towards further conflict.
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, American warships often break into the territorial waters of Russia and other countries in the name of promoting “free navigation”.
Brush the sense of existence and pressure Russia
U.S. military aircraft are also “unable to relax”
Although Russia has always been firmly opposed, NATO aircraft led by the United States often arrive near the Russian border for reconnaissance activities. Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with Chinanews.com that the move was firstly because the United States wanted to refresh its sense of presence in Europe, and secondly, to put pressure on Russia. In particular, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty will expire in February 2021. At a key point of the negotiations, the United States The country wants to exert diplomatic and military pressure on Russia.
Rutskoi, director of the General Operations Department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said in September that the frequency of Russian fighter jets intercepting foreign military aircraft over the Black Sea has increased by 21% since 2020.
U.S. aircraft have flown on the Russian border many times, which has undoubtedly become normal, which is also a manifestation of the long-lasting hostility between the United States and Russia. In response, Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the School of Foreign Affairs, told the reporter of Chinanews.com.
Unlike the reconnaissance aircraft or small and medium-sized warplanes previously sent by the U.S. military, the number of bombers carrying missiles arrived near the Russian border in 2020 increasing.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu pointed out in September that NATO, led by the United States, has not only increased the number of incursions into Russian airspace, but has also normalized “missile air strike simulation”.
Li Haidong said that this is a direct point to the deterioration of Russian-American relations. The conflicts and disputes between the two sides in the military field have been clearly and obvious through the adjustment of the type of military aircraft.
The provocation at the doorstep can’t stand it.
Russia strengthens patrol flights around the United States
In the face of the frequent “provocation” of the United States on the “doorstep”, Russia’s long-range air patrol flight activities near the United States are also becoming more and more frequent.
According to a statement by U.S. media in June 2020, in a statement in 2019, the North American Air Defense Command said that since Russia resumed similar patrol flights in 2007, the North American Air Defense Command intercepted an average of six to seven Russian aircraft entering the air defense identification zone every year. However, Russia has carried out so many flights in a month.
Li Haidong said that Russia will definitely “recome for the spear” for the military operations of the United States, which is a prominent feature of its diplomacy. For Russia, compromise means sacrificing vital interests, so it is absolutely impossible to compromise.
Russia and the United States “competition” through land, sea and air
The “sub-health” relationship between the two countries will continue.
In addition to aerial reconnaissance and interception operations, the military confrontation between Russia and the United States extends to the North Atlantic and the Middle East.
Since June 2020, under the leadership of the United States, NATO has led three large-scale joint military exercises in the Atlantic Ocean, pointing to Russia. To this end, on the eve of the Naval Day in July, the Russian navy also began to build six large-tonnage and high-cost main battleships, demonstrating its determination and strength to deal with NATO threats.
In August, a collision occurred between American and Russian vehicles in northeast Syria, and American media said that four American soldiers were injured. White House National Security Council spokesman Uliot criticized Russia’s behavior as “dangerous and unprofessional”.
The statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense pointed out that American personnel violated the existing agreement and tried to block the Russian patrol. In response, the Russian military police took the necessary measures to prevent accidents and continue to carry out their established tasks.
Although the military friction between the two sides has escalated, expert observations point out that the United States and Russia are unlikely to wipe their guns and go off, and a substantive military conflict will break out.
Li Haidong said that the United States and Russia have very mature “communeation rules” in the military field. The contact between the armies and the army, and between military aircraft and aircraft, is in a highly tense but controllable state.
He said that Russia-US relations have always been tense, and in the vast majority of cases, they are in a “sub-health” state. Since the end of the Cold War, the time when the relationship between the United States and Russia is good is very short. Most of the time is on mutual alert, crowded out, and even hostile to each other.
However, at present, the tension between the United States and Russia does not occur suddenly, but a series of accumulated contradictions in the early stage cannot be resolved, resulting in a step-by-step escalation.
Regarding the future trend of bilateral relations, Zhang Hong predicts that Russia-US relations are unlikely to continue to deteriorate, but there is not much room for improvement.
Due to the structural contradictions of Russia and the United States’ strategies, the two countries have different understandings of the global pattern, global relations and global policies
United States wants Russia to obey the unipolar pattern centered on the Western countries, but Russia wants the two sides to have relatively independent and equal cooperation, diplomatic relations and military relations. And this kind of relationship cannot be reached in the short term.