The US presidential election in November this year was like a drama, and the vote counting work for the presidential election as of the 6th was still delayed. The current president of the Republican Party, Donald Trump, previously announced his victory, claiming that his opponent, the supporters of the Democratic candidate Biden, “is trying to steal the election.” Even if the Election Committee declares Biden’s victory, Trump may still try to change the election results through the Supreme Court.
Pessimistic neutrality
Russian officials emphasized taking a neutral position. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (Sergei Lavrov) said: “Russia respects any choice made by the American people.” Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed the same view. On the one hand, he praised Trump for developing Russia-US relations. The speech, on the other hand, spoke highly of the “ideological foundation” of the Democratic Party. He promised: “We will cooperate with any future president of the United States.”
At the same time, both Putin and Lavrov pointed out in a certain way that there is no need to have much expectations for Russia-US relations. The experts’ speeches are more direct. “Russia in Global Politics” magazine editor-in-chief Fedor Lukyanov (Fedor Lukyanov) said: “The results of the U.S. election will not change much. Our relationship is very stable and poor. There is no reason to expect it to improve.”
How Trump disappointed Moscow
When Trump became the 45th President of the United States four years ago, Russian politics was full of joy. In the 2016 campaign, Trump has repeatedly expressed his willingness to improve relations with Russia. Many Russians believe that Trump’s entry into the White House provides an opportunity to improve the serious deterioration of Russia-US relations after the outbreak of the Crimea’s entry into Russia in 2014 and the outbreak of the Ukrainian civil war. Members of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) even applauded Trump’s victory. Putin also hoped in the congratulatory message to “work together for Russia-US relations to get rid of the crisis state”, but the hope fell through.
The relationship with Russia has become a toxic asset for Trump: During his four-year presidency, the opposition labelled him as a “Putin puppet”, claiming that he won the election by virtue of Russian intervention, and strongly criticized any relationship with Moscow. Cooperative initiative. In the end, bilateral relations did not improve. As Putin said, during Trump’s presidency, a total of 46 decisions were passed to impose new sanctions on Russia or expand existing sanctions, and the United States also withdrew from one of the key arms control documents, the Intermediate-Range-Range Treaty. .
What will happen if Trump finds a way to stay in the White House for another four years? According to Tatyana Stanovaya, an expert at the Carnegie Center in Moscow: “In the Russian elite, fewer and fewer people believe that Trump is a partner.” She believes that for Putin, Trump is still more appropriate than Biden, because Trump advocates American isolationism and reduces interference in other countries’ affairs. “But you don’t have to expect a breakthrough.” She said, because Democrats and Republicans regard Russia as a threat, and Trump’s inability to change this has been fully demonstrated in his first term.
Biden: Hostile but predictable
Unlike his opponent Trump, Joe Biden can hardly accuse him of being close to Russia. During the election campaign, the Democratic candidate who served as vice president in the Obama administration said: “I think the biggest threat facing the United States in terms of undermining our security and alliance is Russia.” In response to this remark, Putin’s news Secretary Dmitry Peskov (Dmitry Peskov) said: “We can only regret instilling absolute hatred of Russia in this way.”
However, some experts believe that US policy under Biden will be more predictable, including relations with Russia: even if the policy is more confrontational, it is also more stable. Andrey Kortunov, Director-General of the Russian Council of International Affairs, commented on the potential advantages and disadvantages of Biden’s election for Russia, saying: “He will strengthen US support for Ukraine and begin to assert Russian human rights more strongly. On the other hand, he may take a more constructive stance on arms control issues, and it is entirely possible to slightly reduce Washington’s current pressure on Iran.”
Biden is willing to discuss the “New Reduction Strategy” that will expire in February The issue of the extension of the Arms Treaty was regarded as a positive sign by President Putin. Like other Russian experts, Kortunov concluded that no matter who enters the White House, the relationship between the two powers has no prospects for improvement. Even if it is not an enemy, US politicians regard Russia as an opponent. He believes that Russia-US relations are already at a historical low point, and the best scenario at present is to continue the current situation-confrontation but not further intensification, no need to expect improvement.
