Although the results of the US general election have not yet come out, we still need to prepare in advance and shift the focus to the Biden administration’s next ruling philosophy and policies. Therefore, the proposal by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to reorganize the Biden administration during the pandemic is worthy of attention.
1. How the U.S. Faces the Challenges from the Conventional War between China and Russia
Hillary Clinton believes that in addition to the internal issues that the United States has to resolve, such as anti-pandemic, racial discrimination, economic inequality, and medical care inequality, “there is also the escalating climate crisis and many aspects from China and Russia. challenge”.
(1) Challenges from China and Russia
Hillary Clinton criticized the Trump administration for “persisting in looking at competition with China from the perspective of the Cold War.” She believes: “This is a very unhelpful way to deal with challenges. It may stir the nerves of Fox News audiences, but it It covers up the fact that China and Russia pose a completely different threat from the Soviet Union.”
She said: “Today’s competition is not a traditional global military power and firepower contest. Our enemies are using new tools to fight in the middle ground between war and peace, using the open Internet and economy to undermine American democracy, and to make our old weapon system. Exposed vulnerability.”
Hillary Clinton pointed out: “When the U.S. military is fighting costly land wars in the Middle East, China is investing in relatively cheap anti-access and regional blockade weapons, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles, which poses a serious threat to the United States’ expensive aircraft carriers. “
Hillary Clinton said: “The military challenge from China is real. The United States should not be misled by its continued military superiority or the fact that its defense budget is still an order of magnitude higher than that of Beijing, creating a false sense of security. China’s Progress means that America’s air and sea superiority in the region is no longer guaranteed. This is not a competition for equal military power, but a new asymmetric threat. The Americans learned from the deserts of Afghanistan and Iraq that asymmetry can be fatal Yes, so are the sky and oceans of East Asia.”
(2) The prescription prescribed by Hillary Clinton
First, increase B-21 stealth long-range bombers and reduce aircraft carriers
Hillary Clinton believes: ” Although the US aircraft carrier is still strong, the development of China’s anti-access and regional blockade weapons has made the aircraft carrier either far away from the target or under the deadly threat of anti-ship missiles, and the cost of the latter is only a fraction of the aircraft carrier ; Moreover, of the 11 US aircraft carriers in active service, only a few can be put into combat immediately, and the rest are always trapped in ports by endless maintenance and cannot be used.
Therefore, the direction of military investment needs to be changed urgently. For example, it is better to increase maintenance speed than to expand aircraft carriers, such as reducing investment in short-range fighters such as F-35 and strengthening the improvement of long-range combat capabilities. “
The Dongfeng-21 has a range of 2,000 kilometers, and the Dongfeng-26 has a range of 4,000 kilometers. The US aircraft carrier hides beyond the range of the Dongfeng anti-ship missile, and the F-35 stealth carrier-based aircraft with a combat radius of more than 1,000 kilometers is useless.
Some U.S. military experts suggested that the F-35’s combat radius should be increased by aerial refueling, but this is a costly and inefficient method. Hillary’s plan was: “F-35s should be reduced, and the Air Force should add B-21 strike aircraft. This is a long-range bomber under development to prevent advanced air defense systems.”
Due to the high cost of B-2 and its very small number, the U.S. military plans to replace all B-2 with a new generation of hidden bomb B-21 in the future. The B-21 has a combat radius of at least 4000-5000 kilometers and can avoid Dongfeng-26’s attack on its base. It is said that the United States has begun to seek the construction of air force bases and aircraft carrier bases in Pacific island countries 4000-5000 kilometers away from China.
But the B-21 is huge, and whether it will be detected by the PLA radar is a question. The People’s Liberation Army is not only equipped with advanced domestic anti-missile systems, but also Russian S-400 anti-missile systems, which are said to be able to detect and strike F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters. The B-21 is much larger than the F-22, so the B-21 “blocking advanced air defense systems” requires a big question mark.
In addition, the B-21 is suitable for bombing missions and is not good at aerial combat. When the People’s Liberation Army J-20 and B-21 met, B-21 was miserable.
Second, increase the number of submarines
Hillary Clinton also pointed out: “Of the 11 US Navy aircraft carriers, usually only a few can conduct maritime operations at any given time, while other aircraft carriers are trapped in ports by heavy maintenance. Instead of continuing to expand the vulnerable surface fleet. The Navy should invest in maintaining speed and next-generation submarines.”
However, in conventional warfare, the number of weapons carried by submarines is limited and cannot replace the role of aircraft carriers.
The third is to tailor the army and upgrade the communications and intelligence systems.
Hillary suggested: “As the United States ends a period dominated by land warfare and begins to look forward to potential air, sea, and space conflicts, the Army should accept the risks of shrinking active ground forces. The reduction of soldiers and heavy tanks will meet The strategy at this time, and it costs less. For example, maintaining fewer brigade-level armored combat teams can save tens of billions of dollars in the next 10 years. In addition to heavy tanks, the army should also invest in bringing it to the army in future conflicts Advantages of tools include upgrading communications and intelligence systems.”
Fourth, strengthen the US military alliance system.
Hillary Clinton suggested: “Renewed commitment to diplomacy will strengthen the U.S. military position.” She said: “U.S. allies are assets that neither China nor Russia can match. This allows Washington to deploy military power around the world. For example, in my position as Secretary of State. During this period, we reached an agreement to deploy 2,500 U.S. Marines in northern Australia, close to the channel in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.”
Hillary Clinton criticized Trump for “seeing the U.S. alliance system as a mere act of collecting protection money-for example, he warned NATO partners that they must either’pay for the strong military protection of the United States or protect themselves.’ Although emphasized The necessity of sharing responsibilities is appropriate, but it is more constructive to consider the division of labor.
But it makes sense for Trump to speak loudly. In the alliance system, the United States bears about 70% of the expenses, which is a burden for the United States.
In short, the anti-access and regional blockade weapons developed by China have greatly reduced the role of aircraft carriers. Hillary Clinton did not propose a prescription that can defeat China through conventional warfare at the door of China.
2. How to deal with the nuclear race with China and Russia
Hillary Clinton believes that the most important thing for the United States is to avoid misjudgments by China and Russia, leading to a nuclear war. She said: “Perhaps the most important thing is that the United States needs a new way to deal with nuclear weapons. First, it should not deploy low-yield nuclear warheads on submarines or nuclear-armed cruise missiles. This expands the scope of nuclear weapons and increases misunderstandings. The risk of rapid escalation into a full-scale nuclear war.”
She believes that the United States should negotiate with Russia to reduce nuclear weapons and at the same time bring China in. She said: “The United States should not invest $1 trillion in its nuclear arsenal in the next 30 years, as currently planned. On the contrary, the United States should drastically reduce its reliance on old-fashioned intercontinental ballistic missiles and seek a newer, less ‘The modern approach to restart the arms control diplomacy abolished by the Trump administration.”
She believes: “One of the first tasks should be to extend the New START treaty with Russia. When the Obama administration took office, I and Ellen Tauscher, the top official in charge of arms control at the State Department, helped The treaty was negotiated. It is also important to convince China to join the nuclear negotiations.”
China and the United States and Russia are not of the same order of magnitude in their nuclear arsenals. If the United States wants China to join the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, China should put forward a prerequisite: the United States and Russia must maintain the same number of nuclear weapons as China. In other words, either the United States and Russia will reduce their nuclear arsenals to China’s current level, or they will allow China to increase its nuclear weapons to the current level of the United States and Russia, otherwise China will not have to join the US-Russia negotiations.
3. How to improve the R&D and production capabilities of the U.S. military industry
Hillary Clinton believes: “The current US industrial and technological strength has shrunk, key supply chains are fragile, alliances are disintegrated, and the government is hollowed out.” Therefore, it is necessary to improve US military industrial R&D and production capabilities.
(1) The US industrial chain can no longer rely on China
Clinton pointed out: “For a long time, the two-party governments have not fully realized the impact of economic policies on security. These policies have weakened strategically important industries and moved vital supply chains overseas.”
She said: “The U.S.’s shrinking industrial production capacity and insufficient investment in scientific research have led to dangerous dependence on China and unprepared for future crises. This problem can be traced back decades. When the USS Cole (USS Cole) When I was bombed in 2000, I was shocked to learn that only one American company was left specializing in the production of special steel needed to repair ship hulls. Twenty years later, the pandemic highlighted the U.S.’s critical import China and other countries are dependent on not only life-saving medical supplies, but also raw materials such as rare earth minerals and electronic equipment that power everything from telecommunications to weapon systems.”
(2) Increase the modernization of US defense capabilities
Hillary Clinton believes: “One of the most important tasks must be to modernize the U.S. defense capabilities, especially to get rid of the traditional weapon system that was built for the defunct empire.
Another goal is to upgrade the domestic power of the United States. Foundation-Supporting American innovation, supporting industries and supply chains of strategic importance. These two projects are complementary.
Military modernization will cost billions of dollars, which can be used for domestic advanced manufacturing and research and development. It will help the United States compete with rivals and prepare for non-traditional threats such as climate change and future pandemics; it will also alleviate some of the economic pain caused by the Pentagon’s budget cuts.”
She said: “Former Vice President Joe Biden proposed a plan to invest 700 billion US dollars in innovation and manufacturing, as well as to implement stronger’buy American’ clauses; the United States should implement a plan like his To start the key industries of domestic production-from steel to robots to biotechnology-to re-support sensitive supply chains and expand strategic reserves of essentials.”
Hillary Clinton appealed: “It’s time to introduce ambitious industrial policies. China does everything it can to gain advantages, and the United States cannot afford the competition with one hand tied behind it. In this way, foreign policy and domestic policy are combined. It will make both more effective. It will help the United States regain its foothold in an uncertain world.”