On October 28, local time, due to concerns about Coronavirus Pandemic and its potential impact on the global economy, U.S. stocks fell sharply. The three major stock indexes fell by more than 3%.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes both hit records since June 11. The biggest one-day drop since Japan. Market analysts believe that the accelerated rebound of the global Pandemic, the uncertainty brought about by the US election, and the continued difficulty of the new round of bailout bills are causing a triple blow to the market.
The Pandemic worsens, the stock market is hit hard
The three major US stock indexes closed down sharply on October 28, with a drop of more than 3%. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.43% to 26,519.95 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 3.53% to 3,271.03 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.73% to 1,1004.87 points.
Affected by the surge in confirmed cases of the Coronavirus Pandemic, the benchmark S&P 500 index hit its biggest decline since June. Energy stocks fell along with oil prices, and technology stocks fell generally. The VIX volatility index, which measures the volatility of US stocks, has climbed to its highest level since June. Level.
“The Wall Street Journal” analyzed that the worsening of the Coronavirus Pandemic may cause the United States and Europe to adopt stricter restrictions, which will drag the fragile economic recovery. U.S. stocks continued to fall this week under the influence of many uncertain factors, triggering discussions among investors about whether this round of sharp decline means buying opportunities or market turn.
“A month ago, the market said that the lockdown measures will be limited and targeted, and therefore have less impact on the economy.” said Hugh Kimber, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But now , What we see is a wider concern that the blockade measures may have a greater scope and impact.”
Statistics from Johns Hopkins University show that as of 22:00 Eastern Time on October 28, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus in the United States exceeded 8.85 million, reaching 8,855,180, and the cumulative number of deaths was 227,673.
According to Reuters statistics on October 27, nearly 500,000 people in the United States have been infected with Coronavirus Pandemic in the past seven days.
In order to curb the spread of the Pandemic, Illinois, New Jersey, Idaho and other states have successively introduced new rounds of lockdown measures, and other regions are also preparing restrictions. For example, Chicago will ban indoor dining from October 30, and Denver will restrict dining. Milwaukee will further restrict restaurants, bars and school sports activities.
Susan Weber, founder and chief investment officer of Apomatos Consulting in New York, said that the market’s concern is that the blockade measures will stagnate 20% of the U.S. economy, spreading to industries such as tourism, entertainment, and catering.
The economic body of the industry has a shock. She also attributed part of the reason for the stock market crash to investors adjusting their investment portfolios when assessing the Pandemic in different regions.
On the other hand, the “bad news” from Europe continues to shake investor confidence. German Chancellor Merkel said on the 28th that Germany will implement a one-month emergency lockdown, including closing restaurants, gyms and theaters.
French President Macron stated in a speech to the nation on the same day that France will re-implement nationwide blockade measures from this week to curb the spread of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The continued deterioration of the Pandemic in the United States and Europe has prompted more and more investors to carefully assess the sustainability of the global economic recovery.
The worsening of the Pandemic, the uncertainty of the general election, the delay of the bailout bill…the triple blow to investors
According to Bloomberg’s analysis, in addition to the large-scale outbreak of the Pandemic, the White House and Congress failed to reach an agreement on a new round of bailout bill before the November 3 general election, which also had a negative impact on investor sentiment.
Many economists believe that the short-term rebound of the US economy is more temporarily driven by the government’s lifting of the blockade and the introduction of stimulus policies.
The recovery is quite fragile and the fundamentals of the US economy have not been fundamentally improved.
In fact, with the rebound of the Pandemic and the expiration of some government stimulus policies, corporate bankruptcies and permanent unemployment increase, the momentum of the US economy is weakening.
Fed Chairman Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the outlook for the U.S. economy still largely depends on the trend of the Pandemic and the policy actions taken by the U.S. government.
The U.S. economy is unlikely to fully recover until people are convinced of the safety of re-participating in extensive activities.
University of Chicago Economics Professor Osten Gulsby said that overwhelming evidence from the United States and other countries around the world shows that preventing the spread of the Pandemic is a prerequisite for sustained economic recovery, and where the Pandemic is well controlled, the economic loss is also small.
He believes that rescue measures are very important to alleviate the impact of the Pandemic, but nothing is more important than stopping the spread of the Pandemic.
In addition to the continuing deterioration of the Pandemic and the difficult delivery of the bailout bill, analysts also warned that market volatility before and after the election will increase. Some investors are worried that this election may produce a controversial result.
As the number of mail-in votes is expected to surge, the result of the general election cannot be determined within a few weeks. Many investors have been betting that there will be uncertainty for a long time after the election. Parag Tate, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that American politics “may have more chaotic results…this possibility has not disappeared.”
The Wall Street Journal also stated that some investors are still cautious about the US election, especially in the days after the election on November 3, delays in mailing ballot statistics or other complications may lead to further uncertainty.
It now appears that the S&P 500 Index is approaching its worst performance ever recorded in the week before the presidential election.
Citi Private Bank’s global investment director David Bailin said that although the uncertainty related to the change of government has always caused the stock market to sell off, the uncertainty is particularly obvious this time.
One of the reasons is that investors are worried about a period of time Unable to produce results, US political risks may affect the global economy.
“Obviously, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election is still lingering, and the Pandemic has accelerated its rebound in Europe and the United States.”
State Street Global Advisors Global Deputy Chief Investment Officer Luo Li Henier said, “Then you again I heard that until the final medical solution appears, the bailout bill, which is necessary for economic recovery, will not be introduced for the time being.
This is the triple blow we are facing now.”