Was Biden’s election a miracle?
Was Biden’s election a miracle? The United States has just experienced a general election that lasted from the 3rd to the 7th. From the early stage of the vote counting to Trump’s Florida and Texas, to Wisconsin and Michigan, which miraculously turned the situation a day later, to finally becoming the focus of all parties, and also relying on their own “turning blue” to give In Georgia and Pennsylvania, where the final word is reached, what have happened to the US elections in the past four days?
There are some national trends that have become indisputable facts. For example, voters who mailed ballots support Biden more than voters who voted in person. It is they who have achieved the “blue” nationwide. For example, the intellectuals in charge of public opinion surveys have obviously not yet solved their problems. They have clearly underestimated Trump twice in 2016 and 2020, which is bound to profoundly affect the forecast of future US elections.
In addition, what happened in the United States in the past four years after the four key states changed from red to blue, and the other two key states turned red unexpectedly?
Election reversed by a few towns: Wisconsin and Michigan
On the 4th, the two swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan, which became the turning point of Trump’s defeat in this election, showed similar characteristics: Judging from the election map, most of the two states are still Republican. The red area, but it was precisely the high support rate of the Democratic Party in a few urban areas that reversed the state-wide vote count.
In Wisconsin, this occurs in Madison and Milwaukee in the south, and in Michigan, this refers mainly to Detroit and its surrounding suburbs.
Let us first look at Wisconsin. The almost vertical upward curve drawn by the real-time vote statistics here once caused it to arouse heated discussion on social networks on the 4th, and many people questioned the beginning of the “trivial” of this election: where did the sudden increase in votes come from ? How could it be possible that the tickets issued support Biden on one side?
But in fact, things are not as weird as they seem. The reasons are easy to understand and straightforward: on the basis of the current US epidemic situation and Trump’s policy performance over the past few months, one is worried about the new crown epidemic. Those who choose to fill out and send mailed ballots at home are hardly willing to vote for Trump.
And mailed ballots are the unpredictable part of the state’s counting points. No one knows how many voters chose to send their ballots. This can only be determined after they are received. Wisconsin’s “suddenly extra” ballots are the latest arrivals. Of postal ballots.
The situation in Wisconsin is becoming a microcosm of the political changes in the past four years: Wisconsin is one of the states with the highest proportion of white voters without a college degree and a small population of color. This group was also the main support in 2016 The Trump crowd, therefore, Wisconsin, which has voted for the Democrats for the past few decades, chose Trump in 2016. But another four years have passed, and new changes have made Wisconsin “turn blue” again-although rural areas still favor Trump in terms of results, the Republican Party’s advantage here has shrunk significantly compared to four years ago, while the cities favor the Democratic Party. There is no major change in the general trend of, but the voter turnout in urban areas has increased.
Lose first then win
Lose first then win In the densely populated and racially diverse Madison and Milwaukee, Biden finally established a relatively obvious advantage, while at the same time, Trump’s advantage declined in populated rural areas such as Brown County. As a result, the two major densely populated towns became the key to determining the ownership of the 16 electoral votes in the state.
The situation in Michigan is very similar to Wisconsin. Although most areas are still won by the Republicans, the advantages of Detroit and its surrounding suburbs dominate the overall election situation in the state. There are 11 counties in the state that have more than 5 percentage points of public opinion deviation. All directions are from red to blue. From a statistical point of view, almost all counties in Michigan with more than 100,000 voters have shown obvious signs of turning blue compared to 2016. Even Trump’s advantage in Red County has shrunk significantly.
Wisconsin and Michigan, together with Pennsylvania, which is about to be discussed, are the key areas where Hillary Clinton lost the election due to a sudden “defection” in 2016, and they are also the key areas that the Biden’s “blue wall reconstruction” policy focused on during the current Biden campaign. Judging from the results, although Biden’s victory is not easy, Trump has not been able to stabilize the voter confidence that was briefly re-established in 2016 in the past four years. Perhaps this is the biggest reason for the reconstruction of the “Blue Wall”.
Win or lose blacks: Pennsylvania and Georgia
Although the immediate results did not favor Biden, the situation in Pennsylvania and Georgia almost simultaneously showed that Biden was bound to surpass: the mailed ballots of big cities did not arrive in the first time, and this part of the huge amount of money The ballot has become a guarantee for the situation to turn around.
The analysis of election data shows that the key to Biden’s victory in these two states lies in regaining the support of black voters: black voters in both places are traditionally more likely to favor the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party’s advantage in the white rural population is comparable to It formed a hedge, but in 2016, Hillary’s performance among black voters in these two regions was mediocre, which is also considered to be one of the key reasons for her failure.
In 2020, Biden has achieved an amazing vote advantage among black voters-approximately nine out of ten black voters across the United States chose Biden. Previous polls have fully demonstrated the existence of this trend, and compared to Harris’ affinity for blacks during the Biden campaign, Trump’s complete loss of black trust is probably the main reason for the establishment of Biden’s amazing advantage. : The aftermath of the Black Lives Matter movement that has swept across the United States since June is uncertain. Trump, who has repeatedly advocated white supremacy, was directly ruled out of black voters because of his bias.
In Georgia, the same voting logic is very clear: Trump’s 5.1% lead in 2016 was completely reversed. Although Biden’s overtaking did not gradually attract attention until the last moment, the trend of overtaking during the counting process was not. Tolerantly, Atlanta, the capital city, is not only the most used area of mailed ballots, but also the most supportive area for Biden, as well as the most concentrated black population.
Up to now, the vote counting process in Atlanta has not yet been completely over.
Lose first then win
In Pennsylvania, the state capital Philadelphia is the veritable “king-maker” in this election: the final Philadelphia mailed ballot is the direct reason for the counting agency to determine that Biden has won in Pennsylvania. This is the traditional vote warehouse of the Democratic Party. Statistics show that Biden’s overall advantage in Philadelphia is as high as 63%. The strong support given by black voters is crucial. This ultimately helped Biden hedge the obvious advantage of the Republican Party among white rural voters in Pennsylvania.
However, Pennsylvania is still not completely good news for the Democrats: Although Philadelphia still chose Biden by an overwhelming advantage, the approval rate for the Democrats dropped by 4 percentage points compared to 2016. The data shows that this change is still happening in white colonies—which may be another manifestation of the deepening racial rift in the United States. While blacks are turning to dark blue, white groups in the same city are turning to dark red.
Latino Accidents: Florida and Texas
Florida may be the most eye-catching area at the beginning of this election: a battlefield state that was considered highly likely to erupt fierce competition in previous polls fell to Trump without hesitation on the first day of the vote. Another blow to the Democrats occurred in Texas. It was also the former Republican vote that was considered likely to swing in the polls, but it was far from the case in actual elections.
The unexpected factor in both places has the same name: Latino immigration.
Previously, all parties generally believed that, considering Trump’s apparent white supremacy and xenophobia, and the Black Lives Matter movement that has almost derailed, in addition to blacks, other minorities in the United States may also be affected by social waves, so more It is possible to oppose Trump. Under the premise that the Asian population is always small, Latino immigrants have therefore become the main focus: Arizona Latino immigrants protested against discrimination and social separation ten years ago, and the movement to protest against discrimination and social division once again rose in 2020, which also seems to support Latino immigrants The presupposition of standing on the front line against Trump with black people.
But in Florida and Texas, the “rebellion” of Latino immigrants has rewritten the political map.
In Florida, this group is mainly composed of Cuban immigrants. Contrary to previous assumptions, Cuban immigrants have added about 200,000 votes to Trump, helping Trump win the “swing state” in this vision. The advantage is three times that of four years ago.
go from red to blue
In Texas, many people believed that the changes in the state’s demographic composition and the rapid bluening of urban and suburban areas will make this year’s general election look different from before. However, on the day of the general election, the Latino population in the state was The sudden turn to make up for the aforementioned losses suffered by the Republican Party, especially in the border areas with Mexico such as the Rio Grande Valley, the local Mexican immigrants unexpectedly collectively fell to Trump-even though the US-Mexico border wall was once Trump’s biggest One of the controversial diplomatic moves, but Mexican immigrants who have immigrated to the United States seem to be more inclined to believe that blocking more Mexican smugglers and future immigrants is most likely to protect their vested interests.
Impact of COVID-19: Arizona
The Arizona election has been pulling and swaying for a long time. It was once considered to be one of the key states most likely to come back unexpectedly, but in the end, Maricopa, the most populous county in the state, became the area where the final word was made: 2016 Trump once won the support here with a 2.8% advantage, but this year Biden established a 2% advantage here and successfully “turned blue.”
The reasons may be varied, but this change is not unpredictable: Maricopa is not only the most populous area in Arizona, but also the most affected area of the new crown epidemic in the state. Due to government delays and insufficient preparations, hospitals, morgues, and crematoriums appeared in the county. And the cemetery is overwhelmed, and even the government requires industrial coolers to participate in the news of the preservation of the dead bodies.
Another key area is the capital Phoenix. On June 30, a middle-aged man named Mark Anthony Urquiza in the city died of COVID-19. He was a fanatical supporter of Trump before his death. He believed Trump’s insignificant statement about the COVID-19 pandemic and participated in it a week before his death. Trump’s maskless supporters rallied, were subsequently infected, and then died. In an obituary drafted for him, his daughter attributed his death to “politicians lacking leadership and unwilling to acknowledge the severity of the crisis.” The obituary was immediately circulated on social media across the United States.
Arizona did not meet the set standards when it was unblocked. Its early unblocking was the result of Trump’s personal pressure. Just a few days after the Democratic Mayor of Phoenix issued the mask order, Trump personally visited the city and initiated the public rally that Mark Anthony Urquiza participated in without a mask.
During the campaign, Biden repeatedly criticized Arizona’s response to the pandemic. Throughout the summer, several polls also found that 60% to 70% of Arizonans disagreed with Governor Dusey’s response to the pandemic. These accumulated dissatisfaction was finally manifested in the results of the general election: the immigration issue is no longer a concern for Arizonans, and worries about education, health care, and the economy dominate the mainstream. Once a long-time Republican supporter, he chose Trump four years later. In another direction.