With election day coming to the last day, Trump has fallen far behind Biden even in polls in various key states. At this time, whether it is Trump or the Republican Party, the hope of the final comeback is placed on the “invisible” supporters, and these supporters are called the “silent majority” by the American media.
In fact, the term “silent majority” is not the first time Trump has proposed. In July 2015, when Trump ran for president for the first time, he was in Phoenix, Arizona and told the public: “The silent majority We have returned, and we will retake our country.”
In 2016, Trump relied on the votes of the “silent majority” to sweep the five states that once belonged to the Democratic Party’s Rust Belt, thus achieving a comprehensive view of Hillary Clinton. Victory, enter the White House.
So who exactly does the “silent majority” refer to? Trump’s supporters can be divided into several categories. According to race, gender and age, they can be roughly divided into: white evangelicals, white males, whites without college education, and whites over 50.
Many of these people have not received higher education, have conservative political concepts, and do not agree with the values of mainstream media.
In normal life, they will not take the initiative to express their political views, nor will they participate in media surveys, but when election day comes, they will use votes to express their attitude.
This is also the main reason why Hillary Clinton led the polls in 2016 but eventually lost the election. In fact, their proportion is not the majority, perhaps the “silent minority” is more accurate.
So four years later, will these people be able to help Trump make a comeback again and defeat Biden? The answer is that it is more difficult than last time.
These uneducated whites and working-class whites, who switched from the Democratic Party to Trump, are more dissatisfied with the status quo. They hope that a “new man” like Trump can bring about different changes. But Trump The four years in power in China failed to bring about the changes that these whites hoped for, so these “swing” whites are likely to re-select Democratic candidate Biden in four years.
In addition, because of the poor governance of the new crown epidemic, Trump has also lost the support of many women voters who have not received a college education.
During the new crown epidemic, these women have increased their living burdens due to the decrease in income and the education of their children. Trump In the key state of Minnesota, it lost 18% of the support rate for women, while in Wisconsin it lost 11%.
This time, the “silent majority” may of course continue to be underestimated by the polls, but they must be counted on to turn the tide. They are not as reliable as 2016.