Britain officially left the European Union as early as the end of January this year, and the Brexit transition period will end on December 31, so does Brexit finally have to wait for the finale?
Theoretically, before this time limit, Britain will negotiate an agreement with the EU on “how to deal with the relationship” after Brexit, then become a legal document, translate it into many languages, and then submit it to parliaments for approval. All of this must be completed by December 31.
At present, the first step of the agreement has not been negotiated. The EU’s view is that even if it is negotiated, there is no way to guarantee that it will enter into force as scheduled…
So is it necessary to postpone the double sender again? But British Prime Minister Boris bit to death.
If it is not delayed, it will only be “Brexit without agreement”.
On December 9, British Prime Minister Johnson rushed to the European Union headquarters to talk in person. Journalists were not even in a hurry to write the finale, because they had seen through everything – the negotiation deadline must be extended.
Sure enough, the negotiations have been postponed to this weekend, December 13.
Generally speaking, what is the current situation?
On the evening of December 9, the failure of key talks led to a surge in the risk of no-deal Brexit. The EU issued a so-called contingency plan early the next morning in preparation for a no-deal Brexit.
This move is cruel. We have been prepared to show that we are not panicking.
On the other hand, the United Kingdom responded that the UK did not promise to accept the EU contingency plan.
ambition only a year ago
Remember how fearless Johnson was at the beginning of his tenure?
In 2019, Johnson led the British Conservative Party to win the general election with its largest margin since 1987, with strong public opinion support and a temporary spotlight. After that, he bloodshed the cabinet, leaving only almost all the hardcore Brexits.
At the 2019 G7 summit, European Council President Tusk and Johnson accused each other of saying that if there is no agreement to leave the EU, it will be the responsibility of each other.
Now it’s critical for the negotiations. Although Boris said toughly in Parliament on December 9 that “no British Prime Minister will accept the EU’s current offer in trade negotiations”, the situation has not been as good as before leaving for the EU.
Reasons for Britain’s lack of confidence 1: Economy
According to the latest data of YouGov, the largest polling agency in the UK, more than half of the respondents are dissatisfied with the Johnson administration’s anti-epidemic performance. This is the first time since Boris became Prime Minister that the support of the ruling party has been surpassed by the opposition Labor Party.
The weak fight against the epidemic has led to the British economy in the worst recession in 300 years, with the gross national product shrinking by more than 10%, the public debt balance exceeding £2 trillion, and the support rate of the Johnson administration has declined steadily. At this time, Britain can no longer bear the added insult to the worse brought by a no-deal Brexit. Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said not long ago, “If I were Johnson, I would have to negotiate an agreement, better than nothing.”
The current economic situation in Britain has not allowed Johnson to say as bullish as a year ago that there is no agreement to leave the European Union at worst.
Reason for Britain’s lack of confidence 2: National division
Scotland has always been dissatisfied with Brexit.
In Scotland’s 2016 referendum, 62% voted for “Remain”, so Scotland has never wanted to leave the European Union. However, no matter how much you don’t want to leave the EU, it won’t be because if Britain wants to leave the European Union, Scotland will “secede from Britain”. Unexpectedly, just a month ago, a survey by the polling agency YouGov found that more than half of the people who support Scottish independence now have already supported it.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Chief Minister of the Scottish Self-Government (Supreme Minister of Scotland), who has recently soared in popular support, believes that a no-deal Brexit will harm the Scottish economy. She firmly opposes it and expresses her intention to fight for Scottish independence in next year’s Scottish Parliament election.
It is not clear whether the 300-year union between Scotland and England will end, but Ireland and Wales, which are also members of the United Kingdom, have also avalanches. Support for “separating Northern Ireland from Britain and unifying Ireland throughout the island” is also rising, and there is also a wave of independence in Wales.
So a no-deal Brexit may trigger the disintegration of the country, which is really the worst result. Misfortune caused by a depression, and the country could not be preserved. The Johnson administration was not confident enough a year ago.
Reason for Britain’s lack of confidence 3: Trump lost the election
A U.S. election, across the Atlantic, also affects the trend of Brexit.
Trump has always supported Brexit. If he is re-elected, Johnson will be more likely to choose a “no-deal Brexit”, because even if the “British-Europe trade agreement” is not ideal, there will be a fat “British-US trade agreement” to support it. The British government has been waiting for the U.S. election, and the result is waiting for an embarrassing time. The situation in the United States turned sharply, and Biden won.
Remember the big oolong that caused a sensation all over the world? I thought Trump would win, but I didn’t expect Biden to win. The picture of the congratulatory letter sent by the government in the name of Prime Minister Boris was picked up by the British media above the words “Biden elected”, and the words “Trump” were faintly visible.
Ivan Rogers, the former British representative to the European Union, said that if Biden is elected president, the United States will give priority to rebuilding the relationship with the EU damaged by Trump, rather than the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom.
Kim Darroch, the former British ambassador to Washington, said that the Democratic Party of the United States (Biden’s party) does not support Brexit in the first place and is likely to prioritize trade agreements with the Pacific or the European Union rather than the United Kingdom.
And the claim from Biden himself is that if the UK fails to fulfill the “Northern Ireland Peace Agreement” in the Brexit negotiations, there will be no “US-UK trade agreement”. The arrangements involved in the North-Ipa Peace Agreement and the British-European trade agreement are bone-cutting and endless, which is tantamount to forcing Britain to leave the European Union without a deal.
Jim O’Neill, chairman of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said in an exclusive interview with the reporter of the main station:
“Maybe the U.S. election has increased the possibility of reaching an agreement a little. Because Biden is an Irish-American, if the United States is aware of something Britain does to deliberately weaken the Northern Ireland peace agreement, it is likely that Britain will not be able to reach an Anglo-American trade agreement under Biden, and the United Kingdom will have to compromise.”
Change the commander before the war
In fact, in the negotiation, the public statement of both sides is called “screaming from the air”. Just listen to it. No one can show the real card. So at this time, other signals are more hidden and critical, such as personnel changes.
In November, a personnel earthquake occurred at 10 Downing Street, and the sudden departure of the Prime Minister’s two left-hand men and right-hand men who advocated a hard Brexit became an important signal. Among the people who resigned was Cummings, who came up with the divine slogan of “get Brexit done”, who was also the behind-the-scenes designer of the 2016 Brexit referendum. As a hardcore Brexit, he is considered Boris’ strongest brain. His resignation is regarded as a precursor to the softening of Britain’s attitude.
Sure enough, Britain then gave in on several issues that were deadlocked with the EU – allowing EU ships to enter British waters to fish, and abandoning the provisions of the British Internal Market Act that may violate the Brexit agreement.
But these “soft” are not enough. It still has “still major differences”. Barnier, the chief negotiator of the European Union, even said that “there is a greater possibility of a no-deal Brexit” than negotiating an agreement.
At present, the British economy is unfavorable, diplomatic swings, and the domestic colleagues are fighting. Therefore, even if the harsh words are still quite harsh, Johnson’s confidence and bottom line are not as good as before. In this new round of negotiation game “more ruthless than who”, the EU still has the upper hand at present.
It remains to be seen whether this delayed Brexit can reach an agreement on Sunday and usher in a climax of the plot.