Winter is coming.
This winter may be extremely cold.
But in this winter, some trending events are happening. There are at least three major changes, some are still brewing, and some are already showing up, all of which will have a major and far-reaching impact on the world in the coming year and even many years.
Simply sort out.
The first change, the change in Western Europe.
This year’s extraordinary situation, the game with Brexit, the struggle with Russia and the United States, etc., can all be said to have a fundamental impact.
But the most dramatic change is undoubtedly the recent anger in France. The middle school history teacher was beheaded, and the whole of France was angry. After the state funeral, it should be liquidation.
I feel that France is determined this time to eradicate the foundation of these extreme forces. Then there will be mass arrests and deportations. This is related to the foundation of France and its political correctness, but it will inevitably affect France’s relations with Middle Eastern countries.
Winter is coming
Macron has already said that France will not give in.
I just saw that Turkish President Erdogan has severely criticized Macron, thinking that he treats domestic Muslims in this way. I first questioned his “mental health” and invited him to “see medical treatment.”
In a fit of anger, Macron has asked the French ambassador to Turkey to return home.
But is this just a contradiction between France and Turkey?
It’s definitely not that simple.
The problem of France, not Belgium? Not Spain? Germany? UK?
Every European country has a headache and they don’t know how to deal with it.
Now, after the vicious incident, France has made up its mind and started this head. Then other European countries will probably follow up.
If the wisdom is superb and handled properly, Europe will remove a major hidden danger, but this process will be very difficult.
More likely, internal conflicts continue to intensify, terrorist attacks are more intensive, and Europe, which is huge, will not be able to put down a peaceful desk.
It really annoys Turkey, and opening the Middle East refugee channel will be enough for the EU to have a headache for many years.
On the eve of Europe’s great changes, I always have a faint worry, bless Europe.
A community with a shared future for mankind still requires more mutual respect and mutual learning among civilizations.
The second change is the change in the United States.
In 2020, Americans have also witnessed history. The worst racial riots in decades have occurred one after another in this most tragic year.
It is indeed too tragic. Now, the number of confirmed deaths has far exceeded 200,000, the number one in the world.
But the next biggest change in the United States is the general election.
I just saw that Trump had voted in Florida in advance, and he walked out of the voting booth and announced: I voted for a person called Trump.
The general election is an internal affair of the United States and has nothing to do with us.
But one thing is certain. With such a tragic reality in the United States, no matter whoever comes to power in the end, the United States will inevitably adjust its policy, and it may be quite drastic.
After all, the United States is the boss. As soon as the United States changes, the world will have to change. U.S.-Europe relations, U.S.-Japan relations, U.S.-Russian relations, and U.S. relations with the Middle East and Latin America may all undergo major changes.
On November 3, just a few days later, everything will come to light.
But it must be said that the strength of a country is definitely not only hard power, but soft power, and the centripetal force, cohesion, and charisma brought by soft power.
In the past few years, the United States withdrew from the group and then withdrew from the group, making the world dumbfounded. Especially in the past six months, we have witnessed the extreme slander.
The decline of this moral image is also unprecedented. From this perspective, the United States has been No matter how it changes, it won’t be the original United States.
The third change is the change in the world pattern.
Recently, Putin talked about the world, saying:
The Soviet Union no longer exists, but there is still Russia. In terms of economic strength and political influence, China is actively moving towards the status of a superpower, and Germany is also moving in the same direction.
The role of Britain and France in international affairs has also changed significantly. The United States, which enjoyed absolute dominance at a certain period, can hardly mention the (American) exceptionalism now.
Of course, Brazil, South Africa and some other countries have also become more and more influential.
In a short paragraph, which countries have been discussed?
Some people said that Putin may be deliberately touting China and Germany, but it is not ruled out that he is also reminding the United States that it is not just Russia that you have to deal with…
But I always feel that with Putin’s status in the international political arena, he is not so petty. He should indeed see some future trends.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union contended for hegemony;
Winter is coming
Winter is coming After the cold war, there are many superpowers;
But now, the heroes are coming together.
The final conclusion should be a warning to the United States: Now, this is not the time when the United States dominates the world and does whatever it wants.
In the year of 2020, this trend may be more obvious.
Even within Western countries, do people now agree with Germany or the United States more?
As a result, it should not be said.
Looking at the world, in the face of an unprecedented virus, which one is better, China or the United States?
As long as you don’t wear tinted glasses, the answer is obvious.
This reminds people of the analysis of the then US President Nixon in 1971:
Now, the United States is no longer the world’s number one country and the world’s superpower from an economic point of view, nor is it just two superpowers…There are five major powers in the world today. They are the United States, Western Europe, the Soviet Union, and China. Of course And Japan.
Half a century later, in Putin’s eyes, the overall situation has not changed. The Soviet Union is gone, but Russia is present; Western Europe is already the European Union, with leader Germany; the United States and China are still the same, but Japan is the only one.
Winter is coming in Japan
Winter is coming It is estimated that Japan is also deeply reflecting on it. Was Putin slipped or slipped?
But whether it was Nixon’s predictions back then or Putin’s current narrative of the world, they all reflect a trend. The world structure is undergoing tremendous changes. Some countries will inevitably rise. The world is definitely not a country’s decision.
Trends are generally long-term and cannot be changed. If you go along, you will prosper; if you go against it, you will die.
This can not help but think of a few days before the Korean War commemoration meeting, the leaders cited period sonorous words: “As long as Western invaders over the centuries in the East Coast by erecting a few cannons can occupy a country is an era Gone is gone”.
This is the trend. 70 years have passed, and the times have changed even more. That’s why there is that utterly utterly saying:
In today’s world, any unilateralism, protectionism, and extreme egoism are totally unworkable!
Any method of blackmail, blockade, and extreme pressure is totally unworkable!
Any behaviors that do their own way and dominate, any behaviors that engage in hegemony, hegemony, and bullying are simply unworkable!
Not only doesn’t work at all, it must be a dead end in the end!
It must be a dead end in the end!
This trend is indisputable, time will prove it.
Time has proven: the world is not peaceful, and it is indeed a major change unseen in a century. In 2020, we have seen too much history and witnessed one tragedy after another.
The tragedy in France, the tragedy in the Middle East, the tragedy in the United States, the tragedy in the world economy, and tragedies continue to happen.
These painful lessons also remind us that to stand on the right side of history and do our own thing is more important than anything else, and we are not afraid of any changes. Guotai Minan is the greatest confidence and strength.