On November 23, the General Services Administration (GSA) of the U.S. federal government informed Democratic presidential candidate Biden and various federal government departments that the current President Trump administration is ready to officially start the power transition process.
Although Trump has not publicly admitted defeat so far and still insists that the election is fraudulent, it is difficult to have a substantial impact on the final outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Trump, who ignores science and fights the epidemic, has been criticized by international public opinion and domestic public opinion in the United States, but still received a record nearly 73.8 million votes. CNN said that this made him the second-highest presidential candidate in American history. This abnormal phenomenon is worth pondering.
The pandemic mainstream media and Trump
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp increase in ratings, visits and subscriptions of pro-Democratic media. The public in various countries is highly concerned about the dynamics of the epidemic. Because of the authority and enrichment of information, mainstream media have become more popular information channels. Public attention is turning from the previously dispersed channels of information access to mainstream media.
In May 2020, CNN released ratings data that it achieved its highest rating in 15 years in April 2020 (with viewers aged 25 to 54), which CNN made clear that the change was due to the large crowds of viewers flocking to CNN to get news and letters about the novel coronavirus. Interest. J
ohns Hopkins University in the United States, famous for releasing authoritative data on the global COVID-19 epidemic, has attracted an extremely large number of online users. The number of visits to its epidemic map website soared from an average of 200 million per day at the end of January to more than 1 billion in March, with a peak of 2 billion.
In the first three months of 2020, the digital edition of The New York Times increased by 600,000 subscribers due to widespread coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Published on Jun 2, 2020 Fox News shows that ratings on various U.S. news television stations have soared due to concerns about the COVID-19 epidemic. Fox News reached 3.44 million viewers in May 2020, MSNBC reached 1.92 million viewers and CNN viewership reached 1.65 million viewers.
Among them, Fox News’ viewership increased by 44% compared with the same period last year, while CNN won the first place in the increase in viewership, with a 117% increase in viewership.
This shift in attention to the mainstream media’s public opinion has affected Trump’s approval rating and the U.S. election. In the United States, the Democrats and Republicans represent the power of the left and the right, respectively. After years of tracking, American scholar Tim Gorseclose found that the mainstream media in the United States are almost monopolized by the left.
Of the 100 or so media in the United States, only a few such as Fox News and the Washington Times are on the right, while other media are basically They are all leftists. Moreover, the vast majority of journalists in the United States are pro-Democratic leftists. Therefore, from the perspective of media publicity, the Democratic Party occupies an unparalleled advantage.
However, the ratings of mainstream media in the United States are scattered, and the number of viewers per audience is not too large. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the voice of the mainstream media in the United States did not reflect the real presidential candidate’s support.
The Republican Party has a strong influence on local TV stations, and Trump’s good use of using the media to create topics in the campaign is an important guarantee for local TV stations to improve ratings, which is closely related to Trump’s strong support from low-income white communities.
Trump, who failed to fight the epidemic this year, has entered the “circlement circle” of pro-Democratic media. The overwhelming coverage of the mainstream media has affected the attitude of the public. Some voters who originally supported Trump and some swing voters turned to support Biden, resulting in a decline in Trump’s approval rating and Biden gaining an advantage.
The black affirmative movement and Trump’s improper remarks and policies have expanded the wave of anti-Trump.
However, by the time the election vote began, the epidemic in the United States had been developing for more than half a year. The adaptation and indifference to the epidemic have reduced public attention to the epidemic. The advantage of the pro-Democratic mainstream media in the United States to win the attention of the people began to decline, and Trump’s approval rating has rebounded.
The website traffic data from Alexa proves this, and the ranking of visits to representative mainstream media websites that tend to support the Democratic Party (such as the New York Times, Washington Post and CNN) have declined in the three months. Fox News’ website traffic ranking rose, which was related to the decline in attention to the epidemic and the Republican campaign offensive.
After Trump contracted the novel coronavirus and the outbreak of the White House, the mainstream media’s verbal and written criticism of Trump slightly lowered Trump’s approval rating in the short term. Overall, in the period before the official voting in October, Trump was narrowing the gap with Biden.
The Republican Party’s fundamentals and the lost electoral “original intention”
According to an August statistics on fivethirtyeight.com, from the perspective of partisan division, Republican support for Trump’s anti-epidemic policy has been relatively stable for five months. Whether the epidemic occurs or not, the support group of the Republican camp is relatively stable and very Unshakable, 78.6% of Republicans support Trump’s anti-epidemic policy. In comparison, the proportion of Democrats who agree is only 10.9%, and the proportion of independent voters is 33.2%.
The “anti-Trump” movement in the United States originated mainly from the Democratic camp, which is the result of “political polarization” in the United States (recklessly supporting the party and opposing the opposition party). Democrats believe that Trump’s failure to fight the epidemic has led to a national disaster, while Republicans believe that Trump has done his best. The epidemic is a serious challenge in all countries, and the political system, power distribution and social mobilization of the United States cannot be solved by Republicans.
On the other hand, the electoral system in the United States has fallen into a “historic deadlock”. Voters choose the president who is best suited to lead the country based on moral and talent considerations, but stubborn on the nature of their own party. As long as the candidates elected by their party, they will basically get a considerable proportion of party support.
It is difficult for Democratic candidates to cross the border to get the support of Republicans. No On how much leadership and personal charm it is. The two parties do not hold political debates and campaign based on the perspective of serving the country and the people, but deliberately maintain differences and opposition with each other, deliberately deny each other’s achievements, and subvert the policies and mechanisms launched by the other party to highlight the innovation and superiority of their own parties.
In fact, no matter how failed the fight against the epidemic, Trump can maintain a support rate of about 40%. This fundamental disk is actually a vivid manifestation of the “historical deadlock”. The “reverse” movement between Democrats and Republicans, that is, Democrats against Trump and Republicans against Biden, make Trump and Biden’s supporters more distinct.
Those who support Trump do not necessarily come from respect Trump, but because they don’t like Democrats and Biden, and vice versa. The electoral system has alienated into a bipartisan dispute under the solidification of party attributes, rather than the selection of talents, and has lost the most important purpose and goal of the election.
“Restart the economy”, the stock market and voters
Against the backdrop of the long-term bipartisan scuffle in the United States, the people have become indifferent to the political struggle, and the concern for the future and destiny of the country has given way to focus on their own livelihoods. Except for major strategic issues related to the survival of the whole country (such as nuclear weapons and large-scale wars), most international issues are difficult to bring about the interest of Americans. Although the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading in the United States, income and work are more important for Americans who do not have the epidemic around them. They have no time to consider the impact of the epidemic on the country.
According to the latest research report “Key Issues in the 2020 Election” released in August 2020, Pew Research Center in the United States, economic problems are the main factors affecting the election, and up to 79% of voters expressed concern about economic issues. Eighty-eight percent of Rump’s supporters are most concerned about economic issues. Therefore, although contrary to the law of the fight against the epidemic, Trump’s forced “restart of the economy” caters to a large number of people concerned about short-term livelihoods (rather than grand political and strategic issues).
After the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States, Americans’ evaluation of the economic situation has deteriorated sharply, but overall the U.S. stock market has maintained a relatively stable high operation. Despite the meltdown of the U.S. stock market after the outbreak, the three major U.S. stock indexes (Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s) are still strong. According to Gallup’s survey, stocks remain America’s favorite investment project in 2020, and the stability of the U.S. stock market environment also provides people with confidence.
In 2020, stock holdings remained high, with 55% of Americans owning stocks. Among them, Republicans own about 61% of their own shares, 51% without party affiliation, and 56% of Democrats. Doing every means to maintain the stability of the stock market and promote the rise of the stock market is Trump’s key means to win over the majority of Americans who hold stocks. Trump is particularly concerned about the stock market dynamics because it has become a weathervane of the U.S. election.
Trump’s immigration and taxation policies have also attracted stakeholders, and some Americans remember Trump’s so-called “achievements” in economic growth and employment rates before the outbreak, which also constitute a stable source of votes.