According to the New York Times on the 26th local time, U.S. intelligence agencies told the Biden administration that if the United States withdraws its troops before the Taliban reach a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government, the Taliban may regain control of most of Afghanistan within two or three years, and even lead to the return of Al-Qaeda.
Public opinion believes that the U.S. intelligence agencies are making excuses for the continued presence of the U.S. military in Afghanistan.
The New York Times reported that these statements of U.S. intelligence agencies quoted a confidential intelligence assessment prepared for the then U.S. government in 2020, and U.S. officials who currently tend to maintain a military presence in Afghanistan used this assessment as a basis to make the latest recommendations to the Biden administration.
The nearly 20-year war in Afghanistan has become the most protracted war in American history. The United States spent nearly $1 trillion on it, and the Taliban still control about half of Afghanistan’s territory. Last February, the then U.S. government reached an agreement with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 1 this year.
Subsequently, the Afghan government and the Taliban also launched peace talks in Qatar last September, but due to the huge differences between the two sides, the negotiations progressed slowly. Taliban forces have frequently attacked Afghan military and police and government agencies, and the Afghan government has not eased its military strikes against Taliban forces.
After the Biden administration took office in January this year, Biden said that it was “difficult” for the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan by May 1, but even if the withdrawal is postponed, it will not be delayed “for a long time”.
Biden reiterated this position at his first press conference after taking office on the 25th of this month.
After Biden’s speech on the 25th, the Taliban issued a statement saying that the Taliban was committed to implementing the agreement reached last February and regarded it as the “smartest and shortest way” to end 20 years of war.
If the U.S. military violates the agreement, the Taliban will resume hostilities against foreign troops.