Washington, January 1st – News analysis: Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 20 million. What are the new characteristics of the recent epidemic?
On the first day of 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 20 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 347,000.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 10 million on November 9, 2020, from 10 million to December 8th, in less than a month, from 15 million to more than 20 million, in just 24 days, the growth rate reached a new high.
Recently, the core indicators of confirmed cases, deaths and hospitalizations of COVID-19 in the United States have been climbing. At the same time, three states have confirmed the detection of mutant COVID-19 cases reported in the United Kingdom.
A number of authoritative epidemiology experts in the United States said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the current epidemic situation in the United States is worrying. Confirmed cases and deaths may increase significantly after the Christmas and New Year holiday.
It is expected that the epidemic will not be possible until after the middle of this year and a large proportion of the people in the United States complete the coronavirus vaccination. It has been significantly improved.
The three-inducement of the recent “surge”
According to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on December 31, 2020, more than 230,000 new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and more than 3,700 new deaths were reported in the United States on the 30th, which is another high since mid-December.
According to the latest data of the tracking project launched by Atlantic Monthly in the United States, as of December 31, 2020, there were more than 125,000 coronavirus hospitalizations in the United States, the highest number since the outbreak.
At present, the medical system in many parts of the United States is under great pressure, and the reception capacity is close to the limit.
Zhang Style, vice president of the School of Public Health and outstanding professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Los Angeles, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that there are three main reasons for the recent “surge”:
first, there are more gatherings between family and friends during the holiday, which exacerbates the spread of the virus; second, the public’s minds have become relaxed, right The epidemic has “fatigue”, increasing the risk of infection; third, the United States has found cases of mutant COVID-19 reported in the United Kingdom. This mutant virus is more infectious and may already have a certain range of community transmission.
Following the discovery of the first case of mutant COVID-19 in the United States in the United States on December 29, 2020, California and Florida have successively discovered mutant COVID-19 cases.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes that this mutant novel coronavirus may have appeared in many states.
Stanley Pearlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in the United States, told Xinhua News Agency that the mutant coronavirus is more infectious and may lead to more infections, followed by more deaths.
After the holiday, there may be a more fierce “surge”
Although the average number of new confirmed cases in the United States in a single day is about 180,000, and the average number of new deaths in a single day is about 2,200, which is already high, experts believe that the “real face” of the epidemic is more severe.
Zhang Style said that the reporting system in various places during the Christmas and New Year holidays is not sound, and there may be a backlog of data. After the holiday, there may be a large increase in the incidence and mortality of the novel coronavirus.
Facing the risk of the intensification of the spread of the epidemic in the U.S. holiday season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently issued a recommendation calling on people to postpone their travel plans, stay at home as much as possible, hold online virtual gatherings with family and friends who are not together, and give gifts to each other.
It is emphasized that travel will increase the risk of infection and transmission of the novel coronavirus. Staying at home during the holiday is The best way to protect yourself and others. However, there are still a large number of people traveling during the holiday.
Fauci said that the current epidemic in the United States is beginning to “get out of control” in all aspects.
The large number of people traveling during the holiday season is likely to increase on the basis of the existing “surge” of cases, which is worrying.
He believes that the epidemic in January this year may be worse than in December last year.
Data released by the Tracking of the Epidemic in the United States on December 31, 2020 shows that 76,580 new coronavirus deaths in the United States in December reached 76,580, the highest number of new deaths in a single month since the outbreak of the epidemic.
According to the latest forecast data of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the cumulative number of coronavirus deaths in the United States may reach 383,000 to 424,000 by January 23, 2021.
Vaccination progress is behind expectations
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved two applications for emergency use of the coronavirus vaccine in December last year, one jointly developed by Pfizer and the German biotechnology company, and the other by Modena.
At present, these two vaccines have been distributed throughout the United States, giving priority to medical staff and people living in long-term care institutions such as nursing homes.
The head of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. coronavirus vaccine and drug problem solving program, previously said that the United States plans to complete the vaccination of 20 million people by the end of December 2020.
However, according to the vaccine data on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of December 30, the number of people in the United States who were vaccinated for the first dose of vaccine was about 2.794 million. Some experts and government officials criticized the vaccination progress in the United States for far below expectations.
“The current delay in vaccination in the United States is partly due to problems in production and distribution and the high requirements for cold chain transportation of vaccines,” Pearlman said.
Zhang Style said that in the early stage of the promotion of the U.S. vaccine plan, the connection between the links has not yet been fully formed, so the progress is lagging behind the plan, and it is expected that the speed will gradually accelerate in the later period.
If 50% to 60% of the people in the United States complete the vaccination by June, American social life is expected to gradually return to normal.
