“If a hot war breaks out between China and the United States in the South China Sea, the Philippines will participate in the war!”
The Philippines has just signed RCEP, in which ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are all in it.
Moreover, many countries signed under the pressure of the United States, obviously to develop the economy. After all, the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on everyone’s economy is too great.
Moreover, the Philippines is still the president of Lao Du, and there is no “changing weather”. First, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the Philippines has continued to rise, and the Philippines has gained a lot of economic benefits.
Second,to the Philippines is so close to China that the gap with China’s military strength can be said to be a huge difference. Can Filipino senior officials say such reckless words nowadays
Using “Philippines” and “participating in the war” as the core words, searching on the search website, I found that many Chinese we-media reported this matter, one of which was entitled “Voluntary as cannon fodder?” Philippine Defense Minister: If a conflict breaks out between China and the United States in the South China Sea, the Philippines will participate in the war. The following follow-up comments are more than 10,000.
Several information is mentioned in such articles:
First, this is the warning issued by Philippine Defense Secretary Delphine Lorenzana: the situation in the South China Sea is becoming more and more tense. If a hot war breaks out between China and the United States in the South China Sea, the Philippines, “at the center of the conflict”, will participate in the war.
Second, O’Brien, the National Security Adviser of the President of the United States, visited the Philippines and also donated some military supplies to the Philippines as assistance. Therefore, the Philippines “participates in the hot war that may break out in the South China Sea and will definitely stand on the side of the United States and be hostile to China”.
Third, Russia’s “Russia Today” TV website reported a piece of news. In this way, it is true that this statement is true.
Is it really so?
Let’s first take a look at the report of the website of Russia Today. The headline of the household is: “Manila will be involved if ‘shooting war’ erupts between the United States and China says Philippines Defense secretary”.
It can be seen that Lorenzana did say this, but it is obvious that “if a hot war between China and the United States breaks out in the South China Sea, Manila will be passively involved”. Here, “passive involvement” and “participation in the war” are two different things, which are completely different in nature.
For example, if a hot war breaks out between China and the United States in the South China Sea, it will be like two elephants fighting on the grass, and they will certainly step on some flowers and plants. Lorenzana means that the Philippines, like those “flowers and plants”, will become passive victims and victims.
Lorenzana’s words are mainly to warn that China and the United States currently have a risk of conflict caused by misjudgment in the South China Sea. Once this risk really detonates a hot war in the South China Sea, it will bring incalculable and significant consequences to the countries in the region. Because the Philippines near the disputed area in the South China Sea is likely to become the “center of conflict”.
The ultimate goal is to avoid a hot war between China and the United States in the South China Sea as much as possible.
This can also be seen from the reports of the Philippine media and some international media.
In his statement, Lorenzana highlighted that the Philippines may be “drag into a war” and that “ASEAN should work together to avoid a war in the South China Sea”.
In fact, Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines are very clear to themselves that if they choose to stand sidelines in the South China Sea game between China and the United States, open the door to the United States and other forces, and help Americans fight against China, they will inevitably become a pawn and cannon fodder under the Sino-US conflict, and only destroy themselves.
The United States is far from here. Therefore, ASEAN member states will remain neutral.
On the other hand, the United States did carry out coercion and temptation in the South China Sea, intending to maintain its dominance in both hands. Judging from O’Brien’s visit to Southeast Asia, there are some specialities in itself.
First of all, O’Brien visited Vietnam and then to the Philippines, which are countries with disputes with China on the sovereignty of the South China Sea. Moreover, Pompeo suddenly visited Vietnam at the end of last month after visiting India and other South Asian countries and Indonesia. The gap between the two is less than a month, which shows how anxious the U.S. government is.
Secondly, Pompeo’s last trip to Asia was called an “anti-China road show” by the media, “threat”, “tyranny” and “plunder”… Wherever he went, Pompeo kept repeating insults against China. For Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, Pompeo also added a special message, “The United States supports your sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea”.
And this time, O’Brien also did the same.
During his visit to Manila, the capital of the Philippines, he spoke highly to a group of Filipino media reporters: “The main message we release is that we will be here (South China Sea), we support you, and we will not leave.”
But Southeast Asian countries are also very clear about Pompeo and O’Brien’s performances. For example, Pompeo vigorously promotes the “China threat” in Indonesia, but Indonesia said that “Pompeo’s trip is more like a farewell. Although the United States strongly persuades or pressures Indonesia to work with the United States to contain China, Indonesia absolutely does not want to form any security alliance”.
Similarly, during Pompeo’s visit to Sri Lanka, the office of President Rajapaksa said about Pompeo’s anti-China remarks that the president denied that the country was trapped in the “Chinese loan trap” in his talks with Pompeo and said that the country would not sacrifice diplomatic independence.
Third, in order for these Asian countries to listen to themselves, American politicians such as Pompeo and O’Brien throw some “carrots” in addition to warnings to the United States in the Sino-US game.
For example, Pompeo and O’Brien mentioned in Vietnam that Vietnam should crack down on and restrict the transit of products from China to Vietnam and then export to the United States as soon as possible, so as to exchange for the preferential tariff policy of the United States to Vietnam. Moreover, the huge market of the United States will really open to Vietnam.
However, how can it be possible to tear up the cooperation between Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and China in the field of economy and trade? Since 2020, the bilateral trade volume between China and Vietnam and some Southeast Asian countries has not been greatly affected by the epidemic, but some have increased.
Moreover, China is the largest trading partner of these countries, which are all formed by endogenous demand, not that it can be cut off by external forces.
Therefore, Americans try to treat “military assistance” as a carrot. In Vietnam, O’Brien claimed that in order to narrow the trade deficit, the United States could provide funds to Vietnam to help them buy advanced American-made military helicopters.
He also expressed interest in Vietnam’s offshore oil and gas development, saying that Vietnam could allow American companies to participate in offshore oil and gas projects because “the United States is not afraid of China’s coercion”.
In the Philippines, O’Brien donated $18 million worth of arms to the Philippines on behalf of the United States, including 24 aerial bombs, 100 anti-tank missiles and 12 anti-tank launch systems. For the United States, these weapons are only a feather, but they are still useful for the Philippines to fight terrorism in the south.
In fact, for countries like the Philippines, if China and the United States form a confrontational relationship and can adopt a vague strategy between China and the United States, that is the best choice. Only in this way can we strive for more interests for ourselves and ensure our own development to the greatest extent.
If the Philippines becomes the place where war breaks out, it will be a huge disaster for this country.
In the face of various provocations and abets of the United States in the South China Sea, Philippine President Duterte has been angry with the United States before: Do you regard the Philippines as earthworms?
In Duterte’s view, the United States forced some countries around the South China Sea, including the Philippines, to conflict or even go to war with China, just using these countries as “bait”. At the expense of these countries, the United States has no loss, and the United States has no reliable commitment to these countries.
Therefore, Duterte once severely warned the United States not to think about the Philippines again. The Philippines will neither go to war with China nor serve as cannon fodder.
An expert on Southeast Asia told Dao that now the South China Sea is quiet but the wind is endless.
In order to curb China’s development and influence on the international stage, the U.S. government wants to make China’s surroundings a source of instability. From the East China Sea to the Taiwan Sea, to the South China Sea, even what they call “Indo-Pacific”.
The most important reason is that China’s development in recent years has exceeded their expectations, while the United States has shown a relatively declining trend.
Political divisions and ethnic contradictions in the United States also make it difficult for the United States to form a stable development environment. And the hegemonic ideology of the United States makes it difficult to accept that other countries are getting closer and closer to themselves in their rise.
The United States found that in the past, the first island chain in Asia and the Pacific could no longer block China, and the second island chain was also at risk, so it wanted to rely on the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” to curb China’s outward development.
Under this strategic purpose, Southeast Asian countries, especially those with disputes over sovereignty over South China Sea islands and reefs, have become the best pawns in their eyes.
But as Lorenzana said, as long as ASEAN countries work together to eliminate the interference and intervention of third-party forces, no matter how coercive and lured the United States is, it will not set off any storms in the South China Sea.
At this point, Southeast Asian countries should be sober. We should also believe that the vast majority of Southeast Asian countries have this soberness.
Asia and the Pacific are now the engine of the world economy, and peace and stability are the “protective shield” of this engine.