The 2020 U.S. election is an election in which the Republican and Democratic parties are evenly matched, and the new Congress structure also reflects this characteristic. So far, the structure of the new Congress is still not completely clear.
It is generally believed that before the second round of elections for federal senators in Georgia on January 5, the new Senate will be in a “suspended” state-Democrats retain their majority position in the House of Representatives, but their seat advantage has been significantly weakened.
The new Congress will be the most diverse in the history of the United States, with record numbers of women and minority members, and an increase in the number of minority members. The Senate and House of Representatives will have a total of 134 women members, accounting for a quarter of the total number of members of Congress.
In congressional elections, “Republicans performed far better than the predictions of many mainstream authorities.” Congressional Republican leaders such as McConnell attributed it to Trump. The results of the general election not only show Trump’s strength-the number of popular votes is now 9.15 million more than in 2016, but also reflects the willingness of Republican voters to support Trump.
To win a seat in the federal senator from Georgia, avoid alienating Republican voters, and maintain the Republican majority in the Senate of Congress. These practical needs are important reasons why the majority of Congress Republicans acquiesced or supported Trump’s lawsuit over the swing state vote count .
The Wall Street Journal believes that the results of the congressional election show that the American people do not welcome the Democratic Party’s agenda and vision, and that the United States is still a center-right country.
The Senate will briefly “suspend”
After the general election, the 100-seat Senate of the United States Congress is temporarily in a “suspended” state. The Democratic and Republican parties currently each have 48 seats (the Democratic seats include two independent senators who vote with the Democratic Party).
North Carolina and Alaska each have one seat and the final results have not yet been announced, but Republican Senators Thom Tillis and Dan Sullivan are expected to win re-elections.
In other words, the Republican Party is expected to have at least 50 seats in the Senate.
On November 1, 2020, the United States Capitol in Washington.
The last two seats are in Georgia, which requires the winner to get more than 50% of the votes. At present, Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler and Democratic opponents, black priest Raphael Warnock (Raphael Warnock) have not reached the target, and it has been determined that the second round of elections will be held on January 5.
The vote counting between Republican Senator David Perdue and Democratic candidate and journalist Jon Ossoff is still going on, and it is thought that a second round of elections will also be held.
If at least one of the two seats in Georgia belongs to the Republican Party, the Republican Party will have 51 or 52 seats in the new Senate to ensure the majority party status. If both seats in Georgia belong to the Democratic Party, the two parties will each have 50 seats.
However, the Democratic Party will also have a vote of Vice President Harris, who announced the victory by the US media based on the result of the vote count, and can still become the majority party in the Senate.
Many U.S. government and opposition figures believe that it is very difficult for the Democratic Party to win two consecutive seats in Georgia, which is traditionally dominated by the Republican Party, so as to control the White House and the Senate and House of Representatives.
The Republicans are more likely to continue to control the Senate.
According to US media reports, Trump and Vice President Pence are expected to go to Georgia before the end of the year to support the Republican Senate candidates.
Most American media expect that the current Senate Majority Party (Republican) Leader McConnell and Minority Party (Democratic) Leader Schumer will continue to serve as leaders of both parties in the Senate.
McConnell is 78 years old. He has broken and has been extending the record for the majority leader of the Senate. He said on November 7: “I’m not sure if I will be the majority leader
This will be decided by Georgia… If the Democratic Party wins these two seats, Chuck Schumer will become the majority leader.” Mo is 69 years old.
Since the new Congress will take office on January 3, 2021, and the second round of elections in Georgia will be held on January 5, 2021, the suspension of Congress will be very short-lived.
The first midterm elections of a new president are usually detrimental to the ruling party. If the Democrats cannot retake the Senate in this election, it may be more difficult in two years.
Ensuring a majority of seats in the Senate is crucial to the president-elect. Because the Senate confirms the nominations of the new cabinet and senior government officials, which can promote or obstruct the White House agenda and initiate or terminate various investigations. The Senate committees are also controlled by the majority party.
Currently, the Republican Party has 53 seats in the Senate and the Democratic Party (including two independent senators who voted together) has 47 seats.
The House of Representatives is weakened
As of the 18th Eastern Time, the Democrats had won a total of 219 seats in the House of Representatives and only won three Republican seats; the Republicans had won 205 seats and had won 11 Democratic seats. The ownership of the remaining 11 seats has not yet been announced.
However, it is clear that in this general election, Republican seats have increased and the Democratic leadership has been weakened.
According to US media reports, this result was unexpected by the two parties.
NBC News estimates that in the new Congress, the Democratic Party will have 227 seats and the Republican Party will have 208 seats. Even if the forecast data will be revised, it is enough to show the progress of the Republican Party.
The Wall Street Journal predicts that the Democratic Party may become the House majority with the smallest advantage in 20 years.
There was a “blue wave” in the 2018 midterm elections, and the Democrats won 41 seats in the House of Representatives and 7 governorships. But this year, from the president, the Congress to the local elections, the “blue wave” did not appear.
Not only that, even though it invested far more than the Republican Party’s campaign funds, in fact, the Democrats were frustrated in the House of Representatives election. As of November 10, the Democratic Party has lost 9 seats and won 3 Republican seats, a net loss of 6 seats.
In contrast, the Republicans have retained their seats in Florida, South Carolina, Ohio and other states, winning a large number of white voters and Latino voters without college education, and weakening the Democratic Party’s advantage among minority voters.
Many of the new Republican congressmen are strong supporters of Trump. Two female members of the House of Representatives expressed approval or implied support for the anti-Democratic Internet conspiracy theory “QAnon” (one of them distanced himself later).
In this year’s general election, Republicans in Congress have made important progress in diversity. This year, 23 female Republicans were elected to the House of Representatives, of which only 10 were running for re-election. The number of newly elected Republicans set a record.
Madison Cawthorn, born in 1995, was elected to the Republican House of Representatives of North Carolina and will become the youngest congressman and the first post-90s congressman in the United States. 25 years of age is the lower age limit for members of the House of Representatives stipulated by the US Constitution.
The newly elected members of Congress also included the first Iranian-American, Oklahoma Republican Representative Stephanie Bis, and the first Republican female representative of indigenous descent. The number of Hispanic Republican female congressmen increased to two.
At the same time, the number of African-American female congressmen increased from 22 to a record 24, all Democrats. The minority of the Senate and House of Representatives increased from 9 to 11 members, all of whom were also Democrats. There will also be the first female Korean congressman in the new Congress-Marilyn Strickland from Washington State, who also has black descent.
New York State Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar (Ilhan Omar), Massachusetts State Ana Pule Both Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan easily won re-election in the House of Representatives this year. They are all young minority Democratic Party female congressmen who advocate radical ideas such as the Green New Deal and universal medical insurance.
US media expect Kevin McCarthy to remain the leader of the House Minority Party (Republican). On November 8, the House of Representatives Democrats elected Pelosi to be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives. After the 2018 midterm elections, Pelosi faced doubts from the young and strong congressmen in the party and promised not to seek re-election. However, before the election this year, she stated that she would compete for the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Pelosi is good at fundraising and has rich experience. But analysts believe that the 78-year-old Biden will be the oldest newly elected president in American history, and the 80-year-old Democratic House Speaker will be “too old.” It is expected that Pelosi will once again encounter the pressure of “leadership change” from some young and strong factions in the party. In addition, due to the frustration of the election, even if Pelosi is re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives, her influence to restrain Democratic members and force parties to reach an agreement is expected to decline.
Pelosi’s re-election requires a majority of 218 votes in the House of Representatives. On November 8, Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the House Minority Party, declared that only 10 Democrats need to join the opposition camp of the Republican Party to prevent Pelosi from being re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives.
The Republican Party not only performed strong in congressional elections, but also retained control of most state legislatures. As of November 8, the Democrats have not overthrown any state legislature controlled by the Republican Party in the general election, which means that the Democrats have failed in their attempts to dominate the rezoning of congressional districts in the next ten years. In key states such as Florida, Texas, and North Carolina, the Democrats may be completely excluded from the once-decade congressional district division process. Starting in 2022, these states will occupy more than 80 seats in the House of Representatives.
Compromise and negotiation
First of all, being evenly matched means compromise.
In the new Congress, the two parties are generally evenly matched and the majority party has a small advantage, which means that it is difficult to pass a radical legislative agenda and there are limited opportunities for systemic reforms. After the Biden administration came to power, this situation will certainly push it to follow a moderate line, engage in more compromises and negotiations with Senate Republicans, and move closer to the middle in terms of policy preferences. “Compromise will no longer be a dirty word in Washington.”
Second, reform actions will be more difficult.
The US media believes that under the weak victory of the Democratic Party, it is impossible to realize the propositions that are also divided within the Democratic Party, such as reforming the federal Supreme Court justice system, abolishing the “lengthy proceedings” rules of the Senate, and turning Washington DC or Puerto Rico into a state.
The “progressive” agenda of the House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party for two years will die again. If Biden nominates the left wing of the Democratic Party into the cabinet, there may be a nomination confirmation battle.
Third, it is expected to advance a bill that consolidates consensus between the two parties.
Biden, Pelosi, and McConnell are all seasoned congressmen and negotiators. According to US media, Biden and McConnell have worked together in the Senate for a long time and have good personal relationships and experience in political cooperation.
Having publicly praised each other, McConnell was the only Republican senator to attend the funeral of Biden’s eldest son in 2015. In addition, Biden has long-term contacts with a number of Republican senators.
The US media believes that some legislative measures that have a bipartisan consensus, such as the infrastructure bill that is believed to help strengthen the competitiveness of the United States
expected to make progress.
This means that the United States will invest heavily in infrastructure, including rural broadband, 5G, and renewable. Energy and electric vehicles and other fields.
In addition, the US media said that Biden and McConnell may also reach an agreement on a series of medical insurance issues, but it is difficult to see major actions on issues such as immigration reform and climate change.
The bipartisan review of large technology companies in Congress will also continue. Republicans believe that Facebook and Twitter are biased against conservatives, while Democrats believe that these platforms are not doing enough to prevent the spread of misinformation.
In this year’s general election, Republicans in Congress suffered headwinds from economic recession, raging pandemic, and low presidential support. They raised significantly less campaign funds than the Democrats, but achieved results that were unexpected by both parties. The leaders of the Republicans in Congress attributed them to Special Rumpu.
McConnell believes that Trump’s marathon campaign rally before Election Day is a key factor in prompting Republican voters to vote on a large scale on Election Day, which helped Republican senators from Iowa and North Carolina to win the election.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said that “President Trump’s momentum helped us expand the House Republican coalition.”
A prominent example is the defeat of the Minnesota Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson (Collin Peterson), who was re-elected for 30 years. Peterson is currently chairman of the House Agriculture Committee.
He has no scandals, supports gun ownership, anti-abortion, and has a conservative stance. However, in this year’s general election, he lost by 31 percentage points to his Republican opponents who supported Trump as his main selling point.
Obviously, the 2020 election has further demonstrated the characteristics of the Republican Party as the “Trump Party.”
According to many US media analysis, regardless of the outcome of the general election, Republicans in Congress may continue to adhere to Trumpism, and Trump himself will maintain a strong influence, which may increase the difficulty of cooperation between Biden and Republicans in Congress.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Senate Democratic leader Schumer and Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi are the biggest losers in this year’s election.
They believe that Democrats advocate expanding the number of Supreme Court justices and abolishing lengthy rules of procedure. Democrats in Congress since Trump took office.
Russia investigation and impeachment investigation, as well as a series of radical agendas in the House of Representatives, caused Democrats to be frustrated in congressional elections. Trump’s tax reform and deregulation have brought new impetus to the weak economic expansion of the United States, which has been welcomed by voters.
Some U.S. political analysts had expected that the 2020 election would have an overwhelming victory like Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 or Ronald Reagan in 1980, which would enable the United States to emerge after years of partisan conflict and deadlock. A new majority party that splits and seeks consensus.
But this year’s election made United States “seem to be more violently divided than ever.”