December 19th local time, the negotiations between Britain and the European Union on the future relationship after the end of the “Brexit” transition period are still in full swing in Brussels, and the two sides are making a final effort to break the deadlock and reach an agreement.
Professor Deng Gang of the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Economics said on the same day that the trade negotiations between Britain and Europe have evolved into “sovereignty negotiations” to a certain extent, and even if there is no agreement in the end, it may not be a bad thing for Britain.
Professor Deng Gang, a lifelong academician of the Royal Historical Society of the United Kingdom, said in an exclusive interview that the scope of negotiations between Britain and Europe has gone beyond what was originally called a “trade agreement” and has become a “sovereignty agreement” involving territorial sea and territorial issues, so the negotiation is extremely difficult and difficult for the two sides to compromise.
Professor Deng said, “In fact, it is a territorial sea issue and a territorial issue, which has actually surpassed what we call a trade agreement and become a sovereignty agreement.
The French had trouble with the British on the territorial sea, the Germans supported Ireland and the British on the territorial issue, and the British were hit on both the sea and land. So now Brexit is not actually a trade issue, but a sovereignty issue, territorial sea sovereignty and territorial sovereignty, so it will never be negotiated.
Professor Deng said that the border territorial issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland has been basically resolved, guaranteeing opening for at least five years. It can be said that Britain has made relatively large concessions on this issue.
However, with the European Union, especially France, the question of fishing rights in British waters, that is, the so-called territorial sea, is delayed. In this case, it mainly depends on the attitude of the European Union.
“If Brussels does not give in, it will be no-deal, or a hard Brexit, either soft or a knife.
Britain’s renewed oath of sovereignty over the territorial sea and territory is cut off from the European Community and the European Union,” Professor Deng pointed out.
As a doctor of economics and the first Chinese full professor in the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Economics, Deng Gang stressed that the possibility of not reaching an agreement is significantly higher than reaching an agreement from the current development trend, but in a sense, it must be a bad thing for Britain not to be complete.
His analysis pointed out that “the United Kingdom is mainly a capital exporter. In this way, the overall loss to the British economy is not very big. In the future, you can invest in Southeast Asia, mainland China, the United States, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.
The advantage of Britain is that there are more than 50 countries in the Commonwealth. Especially in terms of investment, it is very tolerant to Britain. Britain is also a major investor, so the financial impact is almost zero.
In addition, Professor Deng pointed out that in addition to being supported and supported by Commonwealth countries, after leaving the EU, Britain has the opportunity to do business in countries with lower cost of goods.
He pointed out, for example, that before entering the EU, British food was mainly imported from the United States, Canada and Australia, and after entering the European Union, it was forced to buy more expensive food and agricultural products. After Brexit, the United Kingdom could re-choose cheaper alternatives.
Finally, Professor Deng also analyzed that the position of London’s financial center will not be challenged after Brexit due to Britain’s natural advantages of language and the historical precipitation of global operation over the years.
He cited the insurance industry as an example, “the ultimate insurance of all the world’s largest companies, that is, secondary insurance, is actually done by London.”
The Brexit transition period will end on December 31 this year. At that time, if no agreement can be reached, the two sides’ trade will return to the framework of the World Trade Organization and re-implement border inspection and tariffs.