The Japanese government announced on the 23rd, will be in Tokyo, Osaka and other places to implement the third round of the Coronavirus outbreak emergency. Kyodo news agency, citing economists’ analysis, reported that a new state of emergency will dampen hopes of Japan’s economic recovery, the second quarter of the economy may once again negative growth.
Tokyo, Osaka Prefecture, Kyoto Prefecture and Hyogo Prefecture will enter a state of emergency from April 25 to May 11 for more than two weeks, coinciding with Japan’s “Golden Week” holiday from late April to early May.
Under a new state of emergency, the government will require department stores, shopping centers and other large commercial facilities to close, except for shops selling necessities of life, restaurants offering alcohol and karaoke services to close, other restaurants to close before 20 o’clock, cinemas, theme parks and other recreational facilities closed, sports events and other large-scale events in principle not allowed to enter the audience.
Japan began implementing the first round of state of emergency in Tokyo and elsewhere in early April last year, extending it to the country in the middle of the same month and lifting it by the end of May last year. The second round of state of emergency began in early January this year, covering Tokyo, Osaka and other places, and was completely lifted in late March.
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised rate of 29.3 per cent in the second quarter of last year, a record, after the first state of emergency was imposed. Economic data for the first quarter of this year, due next month, have been negative and are expected to shrink again. The Japan Economic Research Center released a survey of more than 30 economists earlier this month that predicted an annualized decline of 6.09 percent in the first quarter of this year from the fourth quarter of last year, but a rebound in the second quarter.
However, optimism about the economy in the second quarter has waned due to the rapid spread of the fourth wave of outbreaks in Japan. As a result of the third round of state of emergency, Japan’s economy will once again suffer negative growth in the second quarter of this year, with gross domestic product falling by 600 billion yen (about 36.1 billion yuan) a month, Kyodo News reported. If it were extended to the whole country again, the economic losses would be even greater.
Maruyama Yizheng, chief economist at Nikko Securities, sumitomo Mitsui Bank, expects the third round of emergency to lead to a Y1.3 trillion (RMB78.2 billion) drop in consumption compared with the first quarter, which will shrink at an annualised rate of 4 percent.