Washington, October 30 Economic policy and economic performance have always played a pivotal role in the U.S. elections, and they have also been one of the main battlefields for the two parties in previous elections.
Affected by Coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. economy has suffered a severe recession this year. The huge wave of unemployment and the wave of corporate bankruptcy have further increased the importance of economic issues.
Especially in some key “swing states,” how voters view the presidential candidates’ economic policies and recovery plans may become an important variable that determines the outcome of the election.
How is US economy
Preliminary data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 29th showed that after a record drop of 31.4% in the second quarter of this year, the real gross domestic product
(GDP) in the third quarter increased by 33.1% at an annual rate, but it was still lower than before the outbreak of coronavirus pandemic.
This important economic data released by the U.S. government before the voting day in the general election on November 3 has attracted the attention of the media and the public.
US President Trump said that this is the “best” economic performance in American history and an example of the “V-shaped” recovery of the US economy.
Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Biden said that although GDP rebounded in the third quarter, the poverty rate also rose at the same time, and the United States will still experience the “worst” economic downturn in more than 70 years.
Some economists believe that the short-term rebound of the US economy is more temporarily driven by the government’s lifting of the blockade and the introduction of stimulus policies.
The recovery is still fragile; with the rebound of the pandemic and the expiration of some government stimulus policies, corporate bankruptcies and permanent unemployment have increased. , The momentum of the US economic recovery is weakening, and the US economic recovery in the fourth quarter of this year may slow down significantly.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, believes that even if the pandemic is over, many jobs in the tourism and entertainment industries are unlikely to recover. How to create more new jobs to solve the problem of permanent unemployment is the US economy The major challenges facing.
Analysts also pointed out that the US economic recovery is uneven, and the gap between rich and poor has further widened. In particular, the middle class and low-income groups are still struggling on the verge of unemployment, and their incomes have fallen sharply. Among them, the unemployment problem of African Americans and Hispanic Americans is particularly prominent, and the economic gap between different races is expanding.
Multiple economic weight
From the perspective of American history, the economic situation is crucial to the incumbent’s seeking re-election.
A poll released by Gallup in early October showed that as the United States is still in economic recession, the economy will become one of the most important issues affecting American voters’ votes this year.
At the beginning of this year, the unemployment rate in the United States fell to a record low in nearly half a century, and the New York stock market repeatedly set new highs.
The overall economic situation was once very favorable for Trump’s reelection campaign. However, the rapid spread of the Coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. since March ended the U.S. economic expansion cycle that lasted more than ten years.
The U.S. economy fell into the worst recession in more than 70 years, and the unemployment rate reached its peak since 1948 when the incumbent president was approaching the general election.
The economy has become a deduction for Trump’s re-election.
Moody’s Analytics pointed out that, in the context of today’s political polarization and increasingly divided public opinion in the United States, economic issues may not necessarily change the voting positions of Republican and Democratic voters, but they are still very important for independent voters in key “swing states.” The rise in unemployment in some “swing states” may lead to a decline in Trump’s approval rating.
According to a recent study released by the American Economic Innovation Advocacy Organization, at the time of the 2016 election, more than 90 key counties in the Midwestern “swing states” had come back to support Trump. However, affected by the pandemic, there are now about 61 of these counties.
% Of counties’ economic welfare has declined relatively. The agency believes that although the pandemic, the turnout rate, the particularity of the candidates and other factors have added variables to the 2020 general election, the economic situation in these small places may also have an important impact on the general election.
How is the economic policy
Judging from Trump’s thinking in power over the past four years, if the re-election campaign is successful, he will continue policies such as tax cuts, deregulation
and promote the return of manufacturing to promote economic recovery, and use tools such as tariffs to reshape foreign trade relations. Biden advocates increasing taxes on the wealthy, raising corporate income tax
increasing investment in public infrastructure and clean energy, increasing unemployment benefits, and expanding medical insurance coverage to stimulate economic growth and promote social equity.
However, analysts pointed out that whether the presidential candidate’s policy propositions can be transformed into practical policies will depend on the domestic political ecology of the United States, especially the game between the Democratic and Republican parties in Congress.
At present, the US economy is facing long-term structural problems such as an aging population, slower productivity growth, huge medical expenditures, high public debt, and widening gap between rich and poor. To solve these problems requires fundamental economic reforms and mutual compromise between the two parties in Congress.
Moody’s Analytics and Wells Fargo Securities analysts believe that under the current background of intensifying party disputes, regardless of Trump’s re-election or Biden’s election, it may be difficult for both parties to introduce major economic reform legislation.
In the future, they can only rely on administrative means. Make a difference in trade, supervision, diplomacy, immigration and other fields.