How Biden will treat China If he takes the stage ?
The U.S. election has not yet settled. Biden announced his victory. Trump is still struggling with the beasts. The dust is still not settled. However, the whole world seems to be permeated with the “festival” atmosphere of Biden’s election, and this atmosphere even extends to China.
As a result, some people have begun to have some new ideas about China-US relations, and even think this may be China-US relations. A new turning point in the relationship. For this reason, he did not hesitate to dress up Biden deliberately.
1. Will there be any difference between the Biden administration’s future China policy and the Trump administration?
Who decides the China policy of the Biden administration and the Trump administration? Is it Biden or Trump himself? The answer is self-evident. The United States is a global hegemony. Its external power is mainly shared by the White House and Congress.
The decisions of the White House and Congress are mainly derived from the think tank system behind it, the consensus of the staff, or the opinions of those in power and their staff.
Therefore, the relationship between the United States and China is not essentially determined by a certain leader, but by the overall political power behind it, or by the United States government, the United States Congress, the think tank system behind the United States, and the entire society. It was deduced from the gradual formation of big discussions including academic circles, political, military, and business circles, think tanks, and public opinion in the American society.
So, how does the United States view China now? In many important documents related to the national strategy of the United States, including the “National Security Strategy Report”, China has clearly positioned China as a “national strategic competitor” and the number one strategic competitor, a strategy that the United States believes endangers their hegemony Competitors are the fight between the boss and the second. This positioning is the essence of China-US relations.
Based on the strategic positioning of the United States towards China, is there a fundamental difference between who is President Biden and Trump? there will not be any essential difference between the two. Their goals are completely the same. Suppress, contain, and contain China, and suppress China is their ultimate goal. Therefore, no matter who is in power in the United States, it will inevitably take the line of suppressing, containing and besieging China.
At the beginning, Obama’s rebalancing of the Asia-Pacific, suppression of China in the South China Sea, TPP and Indo-Pacific strategy were not all suppression and containment of China? When Trump was replaced, his think tank was more extreme and his choice was more direct. He abolished the TPP and the Asia-Pacific rebalancing, launched a trade war and a technology war with China, and initially neglected Obama’s Indo-Pacific strategy, but later discovered Trade wars and technological wars had little effect, and they picked up the Indo-Pacific strategy that had been left out in the cold for more than two years.
From this we can see that whether it is Obama or Trump, their strategies to suppress, contain and contain China remain unchanged. There are two reasons why Trump’s China policy is so extreme:
One is that after Trump took office, he established a strategic position for China in important official documents of the United States, that is, the first strategic competitor. This positioning determines that Trump’s attitude towards China is worse than Obama’s, and he suppresses China. More hysterical.
The second is that Trump and his think tanks have more extreme ideologies and behaviors. For example, Pompeo, Bannon, Navarro, etc. are all people with very extreme ideologies and behaviors, and they are all ideologically anti-China and hostile to China. The policies they have adopted are of course more extreme.
In summary, we should understand that Trump’s China policy is not a strategic issue, but a tactical issue. No matter who is the president of the United States, his strategy toward China will not change; Trump’s China policy is not a question of direction, but a means. Select the question.
From this we can think that Biden’s China strategy and Trump’s China strategy are essentially the same. The U.S. President will not be more friendly to China because of the change of Biden, and China-US relations will not be more friendly to China. A qualitative change occurred when he stepped on stage.
Then, we can also think that the Biden administration and the Trump administration’s strategic direction toward China are completely the same. The difference between them is that they choose different policy means, and that’s it.
2. What is the difference between the Biden administration and the Trump administration?
So, if Biden takes office in the future, what is the difference between his administration and the Trump administration’s China policy? there are at least three major differences between the Biden administration and the Trump administration in their China strategies:
First, the Biden administration will not pursue extreme unilateral policies like Trump. Trump’s China policy is more extreme and omnipotent. For example, the trade war launched against China frantically imposes tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States until the U.S. economy itself becomes overwhelmed; another example is to promote China’s technological development. Suppression, without hesitating to use the power of the state to illegally arrest Meng Wanzhou, a senior executive of Chinese technology companies, on unnecessarily charges
Under normal circumstances, the Biden administration should not take such an extreme policy line as the Trump administration, so there should be more room for discussion when communicating with the Biden administration.
Second, the Biden administration will consider the consequences more in its policy choices. When the Trump administration chooses policies, it often ignores the consequences. What he cares about is the immediate interests and does not consider the long-term interests at all. In this regard, the Biden administration will be more mature.
For example, the Trump administration does everything to its allies in order to achieve its goals, but the Biden administration will pay more attention to the feelings of its allies. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the Biden administration will take more measures to unite allies against China instead of fighting alone.
The third is that the Biden administration is more inclined to “profit for the fisherman” rather than “hands-on”. The Trump administration has a big feature. It is more willing to take direct confrontation in person. For example, the U.S. policy toward China is very naked. The Biden administration should inherit some of the Obama administration’s style in this regard, and he is more inclined to use the resources of other countries to achieve “fishermen’s gains.”
In response to this, Based on the characteristics of the Biden administration, some countries may provoke China in order to please the Biden administration.
3. How should China respond?
Who is more difficult to deal with, the Biden administration or the Trump administration?
considering that the Trump administration has no rules and no bottom line, Trump will bring greater pressure in the short term. However, the policies adopted by the Trump administration have done more harm to the United States itself, and in particular have a very large negative impact on the United States’ national reputation and international influence.
In this case, the Trump administration is more difficult to deal with in the short-term, but once China passes through, the Trump administration’s stupid policies will help China demonstrate its national influence, which is very beneficial to China in the medium and long term. The four-year term of Trump has accelerated the decline of the United States far beyond the eight years of Obama’s administration.
What about the Biden administration? Because the Trump administration has created a huge mess, if Biden comes to power, there will be a series of mess to clean up. Moreover, in the usual style of the Democratic government, Biden will make great efforts to repair the relationship with allies before taking a series of actions.
Under this circumstance, there may be a buffer zone between China and the United States, and even some of the wrong policies previously imposed on China by Trump may be cancelled. However, we must understand that once the Biden administration stabilizes, China is its biggest target, and he will inevitably launch a continuous attack on China.
In particular, it should be pointed out that Biden is a weak government compared to the Trump administration, and Congress will have more power. In this case, China may have to face more Lopesi and Rubio. Anti-China congressmen, they will have greater influence over Biden and thus influence the US policy towards China.
So, how should China deal with the Biden administration?
One is to do your own thing and prepare for the worst
Since the United States returned to the Asia-Pacific in 2010 and targeted China, China and the United States have been playing games for 10 years. What is the balance of power between China and the United States? Undoubtedly, the gap between China and the United States is getting closer, and the gap in global influence is getting smaller. Why is there such a result? In the final analysis, it is because China has done its own thing. If China does its own thing and develops well, the power gap with the United States will become smaller and smaller. This is a trend. Therefore, it is most important for China to do its own thing.
At the moment of 2020, need to add a “preparing for the worst” in addition to simply “doing your own thing” in the past.
Why do you say “preparing for the worst”?
This is because whether it is in the Trump administration or Biden administration, the United States suppresses and contains China and regards China as an adversary and enemy is its national strategy, and the United States believes that China poses an increasing threat to the United States. Under such circumstances , The United States may jump the wall in a hurry against China at any time.
Based on this background, China will not be caught off guard only if it “prepared for the worst”, will it be able to cover the water and cover it with soldiers, and will also be able to calmly deal with the pressing force of the United States. As long as China prepares for the worst, China will be able to deal with the United States calmly.
The second is that the bottom line is clear, fighting will accompany you to the end, and talking will open the door
When dealing with the United States, China needs to thoroughly pursue the strategy of “clear the bottom line, fight to the end, and open the door to talk”, because only in this way can we not be passive.
The bottom line is clear, that is, as long as the United States breaks through the bottom line, China will be able to target countermeasures; fighting will be accompanied to the end and the door will be opened to show the strength of the United States while also showing the bottom line, so that the United States must understand the cost of fighting China. With this basic principle, China will not suffer psychologically when dealing with the United States, and will be calm and calm in the game, and will be able to fight a protracted war with the United States.
On this basis, and considering the subsequent policy trends of the Biden administration, China can communicate with the Biden administration to lift the Trump administration’s unreasonable policies on China, such as the tariffs imposed. After all, these policies are also hurting the United States. Of course, with regard to the cancellation policy, we need to prevent the United States from blackmailing China again. This is the consistent thinking logic of the United States. If the U.S. has to hold on to it, then hold on.
Third, you beat you, I beat mine
The United States is a global hegemony. Although China’s comprehensive strength is approaching that of the United States, it is an objective fact that China still has a gap with the United States. In this case, in the game with the US government, China must follow Chairman Mao’s wisdom: you beat you, I beat mine.
Objectively speaking, as long as China is not led by the United States, time is on China’s side. Because of China’s higher strategic position, China’s development is more in line with the common interests of mankind. As long as China advances at its own pace, the United States cannot contain China.
Adhering to good principles, neither Biden nor Trump can stop the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation!
In addition, it should be emphasized that all of this is an analysis assuming that Biden has successfully assumed office. However, considering the political tearing in the United States and the game of interests of all parties, Trump has not really lost the election now. We should not take it for granted that Biden can do it until the last minute. Successfully assumed the presidency. Now, Trump is going through the legal process, and the US Federal Election Commission has not declared Biden’s victory. Before the legal process is over, we cannot take it for granted that Biden must be the future president of the United States.