The central bank of France, Bank of France, released macro forecasts of the country’s economy on the 14th local time. It is expected that France’s economy will decline by 9% in 2020 and may grow by 5% in 2021.
In a press release issued on the same day, the Bank of France said that due to the repeated epidemics in autumn and winter, the French economy was negatively affected again after a sharp rebound in the third quarter, and the French economy is expected to decline by 9% throughout 2020.
The Bank of France predicts that as the epidemic is gradually under control, the French economy will grow by 5% in 2021 and 2022, and economic activity will return to the 2019 level in mid-2022.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the development of the epidemic: if the epidemic can be effectively controlled in early 2021, France’s economy may grow by 7% in 2021. But if the French and global epidemics cannot be effectively controlled in the next two years, the French economy is still likely to decline by 1%.
In terms of public deficits and debts, France’s public deficit will reach 9% of GDP in 2020 and the scale of public debt will reach 116% of GDP due to the stagnation of economic activities caused by the epidemic and epidemic prevention measures.
In terms of household spending, French household consumption spending in 2021 will remain limited until growth resumes in 2022. In terms of unemployment, the unemployment rate is expected to be 10.1% in 2020, reaching a peak of 11% in the first half of 2021, and will fall back to 9% by the end of 2023.