October 31. According to Euronet, the Italian Ministry of Emergency Civil Defense reported on the 30th that there were 31084 new confirmed cases and 199 deaths.
As of 18:00 on the 30th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases nationwide has increased to 647,674, including 38,321 deaths. Experts said that it is expected that the number of new confirmed cases will exceed 50,000 next week.
According to reports, in the past 24 hours, there were 8,960 new confirmed cases in Lombardy, the most severely affected region, 3186 in Campania, 3,012 in Veneto, and Tuscany. Of the 2765 cases, the Piedmont region added 2,719 cases, and the Lazio region added 2,246 cases.
According to the four different pandemic risk stages set by the Italian Ministry of Health and the National Health Institute (ISS). From July to August this year,
first stage of pandemic control is ideal; September began to enter the second stage of the spread of the virus on a large scale; on October 29, Italian Prime Minister Conte positioned the pandemic in the third stage based on the pandemic data.
Currently, Italy is approaching the highest risk period of the fourth stage of the pandemic.
Silvio Brusaferro, director of the Italian National Institute of Health, said that more than half of the 11 regions in the country are currently at risk of high-speed transmission of the coronavirus, of which 4 regions including Lombardy and Campania have entered The highest risk period of the pandemic.
The Rt value of the virus infection index is 1.7, and there are an average of 280 infections per 100,000 residents. The highest risk period of the fourth stage of the pandemic is approaching, and the city closure measures should be evaluated immediately.
The Italian Ministry of Health and the National Institutes of Health’s anti-pandemic guidelines stipulate that the government should take stringent measures such as complete blockade for the pandemic to enter the third stage for more than three weeks.
In response, Andrea Crisanti, an Italian public health expert and professor of microbiology at the University of Padua, pointed out that the pandemic data showed that as early as 10 days ago, high-risk cities such as Milan should take strict measures to close the city.
Paolo Bonanni, a professor of pandemic at the University of Florence, emphasized that the infection period of the new confirmed data we are currently seeing is 10 to 15 days ago, and any control measures will not see immediate results.
There are many factors affecting the development of the pandemic. Mathematical models show that the pandemic curve may reach its peak in mid-December.
Italian bioscience and medical statistics expert Stefania Salmaso (Stefania Salmaso) said that it is still difficult to predict the highest level of new confirmed cases in a single day.
According to the current trend of light curve growth, it is expected that the number of new confirmed cases will exceed 50,000 in the next week, and even 100,000 in the next few weeks.
