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Will the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is spreading outwards, rise into regional wars?

Affect Israeli-Arab relations

Israeli artillery forces open fire on Gaza on the front line on May 17, 2021, local time.

CAIRO, May 18 2021 The escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has had an impact on the situation in the Middle East

In recent days, the escalation of the bloody conflict between Palestine and Israel has resulted in a large number of casualties, including women and children, which is of grave concern to the international community. The detonation of the Israeli-Palestinian “powder keg” has also touched the sensitive nerves of middle-east countries, whether this round of conflict will induce new regional wars has become the focus of public opinion.

Analysts believe that the current round of conflict in recent years between Israel and the Gaza Strip armed groups broke out the largest conflict, there is now a trend to spread to neighboring countries. However, since further escalation of the conflict is not in the interest of both parties, such spillover effects are limited and are unlikely to lead to large-scale regional instability, but may have an impact on the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab States.

There is a trend of spread

The continuing escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has prompted strong protests from people across the Middle East, with demonstrations in solidarity with Palestine sweeping across the country. Some protests along the border with Israel have led to violence, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has gained momentum towards neighbouring countries.

According to media reports, hundreds of Jordanian protesters have tried to storm the Allenby Bridge linking Jordan and Israel in recent days, and some in the Lebanese border area have tried to break through the border fence between Lebanon and Israel, one of whom was shot dead by Israeli forces. The Israeli army claims to have fired rockets at Israel from Lebanon and Syria in recent days.

In addition to popular protests, governments in Several Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Iran, have also spoken out against Israel. Iranian President Rouhani said in a telephone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the 16th that the two countries, as important countries in the region, should cooperate with each other to “confront the aggression and crimes of the Zionist regime”. At an emergency video conference held by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on the 16th, Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s “blatant violation” of Palestinian rights.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned at an emergency public meeting of the Security Council on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the 16th that the conflict could drag Israel and Palestine into a vicious circle of violence, with disastrous consequences for both peoples and the region as a whole.

The spillover effect is limited

Despite the outward spread of the conflict, analysts mostly believe that the spillover effect is limited, that the conflict will not rise into regional war, and that a ceasefire is likely in the short term.

Oyton Orhan, a researcher at Turkey’s Middle East Research Centre, said the conflict would not turn into a regional crisis. He said a truce between the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel could soon be called because neither side could gain more from military means. “As before, it will be an undecided war, and both sides are likely to declare victory.”

Sakr Jalil, Ph.D. in political science at the Palestinian National Najah University, described the conflict as “local and short-term” and that while both the Lebanese Allah Party and pro-Iranian militias in Syria are in solidarity with Hamas, it is unlikely to lead to a large-scale conflict between them and Israel.

Ma Xiaoxuan, an expert on international issues at zhejiang Foreign Chinese College, said the conflict was limited in scope and the situation was manageable. Hamas, far less powerful than Israel, has been unable to engage in a sustained military confrontation with it and has recently signaled a ceasefire. At the same time, both sides have domestic political considerations in the conflict, israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas both hope to use the conflict to increase the political leverage in the face of domestic rivals, so the two sides will achieve their respective interests after the appeal will be “good to see.”

Affect Israeli-Arab relations

Analysts believe that while this round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not shake the overall situation in the Middle East, but may have some impact on the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries.

Affect Israeli-Arab relations

The Israeli-Palestinian issue has been a major obstacle to the normalization of Israeli-Arab relations, but in recent years, some Arab countries have been wary of Iran’s growing regional influence and have improved relations with Israel and even established diplomatic relations with Israel under the auspices of the United States.

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Institute at Shanghai Overseas Chinese University, said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict shows that the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains a fundamental and root-cause issue affecting security and stability in the Middle East, and that the trend of continued marginalization of the Palestinian issue in recent years is expected to be corrected to some extent.

The Times of Israel article said that as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensified, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and other countries that have recently signed a normalization agreement with Israel in an embarrassing situation, some countries have emerged civil society groups called for the severing of relations with Israel. It remains to be seen whether Relations between Israel And These Countries Will “RegreSS” And WhetheR The Conflict Will Prevent Israel From Establishing Diplomatic Relations With Other Arab Countries, The Article Said.

Israeli public opinion, as a “potential” to normalize relations with Israel, the Saudis issued a strong condemnation of Israel, in the short term, the further development of relations between the two countries become unrealistic.

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