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Where will Biden take United States?

Where will Biden take United States?

Where will Biden take United States?

November 7, local time, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden delivered a victory speech in Wilmington, Delaware. Shi promised, “will be the president of all Americans.”

Earlier in the day, a number of media outlets in the United States successively announced that Biden, the former US vice president and Democratic presidential candidate, won the 2020 US presidential election by winning more than 270 electoral votes required to win the election.

On this day, Biden’s 78th birthday is less than two weeks away. If all goes well, Biden will officially enter the White House on January 20 next year, becoming the oldest newly elected president in American history.

Presidential Road 33

On November 20, 1942, Biden was born in a middle-class family in Pennsylvania, USA. It was Pennsylvania, his hometown, that finally became the most critical cornerstone of Biden’s road to the White House on November 7.

When he was a child, Biden’s family was extremely difficult. The family even moved into the residence of his grandparents because of financial difficulties.

In 1965, Biden graduated from the University of Delaware with a major in history and political science, then entered the Syracuse University School of Law and obtained a doctorate in law. In the third year of college, Biden met his first wife Neilia Hunter in the Bahamas.

In 1972, the 29-year-old Biden defeated then Republican Senator Cale Boggs (Cale Boggs) and became the sixth youngest senator in American history, which also opened his long career in politics.

Biden’s political career

However, Biden’s political career has not been smooth sailing. In 1972, shortly after Biden became a senator, his infant daughter Naomi Biden and his wife Nelia Hunt died in a car accident. The two young sons were also seriously injured. After the accident, the distraught Biden once considered resigning and even thought of committing suicide. Fortunately, his colleagues finally gave up the idea after persuasion.

In 1987, Biden, who was frequently involved in foreign affairs, ran for the president for the first time, but he was unfavorable. Not only was he exposed in a speech that he copied part of the speech of Neil Kinnock, the leader of the British Labor Party, but also After exaggerating his undergraduate and law school academic history, he fell into a whirlpool of public opinion. Under heavy pressure, Biden suddenly ruptured an intracranial aneurysm. Fortunately, he saved his life after being rescued, but he had to withdraw because of this.

21 years later, Biden once again participated in the presidential race. He performed well in the Democratic primary election debates. He also relied on his unique sense of humor and understanding of foreign policy to impress Barack Obama and many Democratic supporters on the same stage.

However, in the end, Biden was not as well-known as his opponents such as Hillary and Obama, and his party’s campaign record was mediocre, ranking fifth only in the Iowa Caucus. However, just seven months after he withdrew from the campaign, the then Democratic presidential candidate Obama chose Biden as his running mate and appointed Biden as the vice president of the United States after winning the election.

In this way, after more than 20 years of struggle, Biden finally realized his “White House Dream”, but he is still a small step away from fulfilling his long-cherished wish, and this is the most difficult step. However, the ill-fated Biden home suddenly changed again: in 2014, Biden’s second son Hunter Biden was involved in a Ukrainian company’s corruption investigation; in 2015, Biden’s eldest son Bo Biden died in Brain cancer.

However, the bitterness and ups and downs of his career and life did not defeat Biden. After the eldest son passed away in 2016 and Obama did not clearly support Biden’s election and missed the election, finally, the time came in 2019, and the opportunity came. When Biden announced his third presidential run in 2019, American voters threw the olive branch to him.

Braking with static-overtake Trump

Compared with Trump, an energetic and enthusiastic non-traditional politician, Biden, the establishment elite who loves ice cream and occasionally makes mistakes, does not seem to have much advantage. So, what factors pushed Biden, who ran for president for the third time, to get ahead of Trump in the polls and finally realize his dream of winning the election?

Judging from the campaign history, Biden’s election as president depends on “two variables + one constant.” Among them, the “two variables” refer to the drastic changes in the American social environment during the general election, that is, the spread of the new crown epidemic in the United States, and the rise of the “Black People’s Fate” Movement (BLM). These two variables can be described as “great opportunities”. Biden only needs to stop silently and wait for Trump to “error”, and he can harvest a wave of popular support.

And “a constant” refers to the high degree of trust the American people have in Biden. In 2020, which is full of uncertainty, the rich political experience and controllable behavior expectations of the establishment can bring more psychological security to the American people. In the increasingly polarized United States, Biden’s blue-collar background and ups and downs in his family destiny make many people and political observers believe that he has the ability to empathize with ordinary people’s pain.

Variable 1: Coronavirus Pandemic

In 2020, the United States was hit by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and wave after wave of epidemics caused severe damage across the United States. The irresponsible measures taken by the Trump administration in response to the epidemic provide Biden with an excellent opportunity to counterattack. As of November 2, the number of confirmed cases and deaths caused by the new crown epidemic in the United States ranked first in the world, which can be called a “catastrophic failure.”

In this regard, an in-depth report in the “Washington Post” pointed out that although the disaster “does not have to happen in this way”, Trump has turned a deaf ear to the warnings issued by all parties, including high-level government. During the escalation of the epidemic, he was either busy playing golf or tweeting to “snap the pot” between China and the WHO. In response, a former Democratic presidential candidate Bloomberg’s deputy campaign manager for a Democratic strategy analyst said frankly, “The new crown epidemic is the overwhelming number one issue. Trump’s misjudgment of the situation, poor handling, and Refusing to take any responsibility, these will cost him points.”

As the weather turns cooler, the second wave of epidemics has swept across the United States, and the topic of the new crown epidemic has become more and more heated. Just when Trump is accused by thousands of people because of his inability to fight the epidemic, and he continues to lose points, it is also a good time for Biden to earn points. . In this regard, on the one hand, Biden condemned the Trump administration for failing to plan, prepare, and honestly assess and communicate the threat posed by the virus to the country, and is “surrendering” to the new coronavirus pandemic; on the other hand, He also actively promoted his “Reopening the United States Safely”, trying to establish a responsible image and win the trust of voters who are disappointed in Trump’s policies.

At the Democratic National Congress on August 18, the party’s new party program was approved. In response to the new crown epidemic, the new party program proposed to expand the scope of testing, strengthen contact tracing, and provide free testing, treatment and vaccines. This also reflects Biden. Policy goals. At the same time, Biden has maintained a lead over Trump in most polls since this summer.

Variable 2: George Freud death

In addition to the sudden impact of the new crown epidemic on the general election situation, on May 25, 2020, an African American man George Floyd (George Floyd) died after being violently enforced by a white policeman. This incident also led to Trump and Biden’s approval rating is an important fuse for widening the gap.

After the murder of George Freud, the United States set off the most involved and widespread anti-racism protests in history. The wave of protests and demonstrations hit, but Trump has been reprimanded for his racist remarks, spreading divisive sentiments, and using the National Guard to maintain order.

Source of data on the scope of anti-racial discrimination protests: Crowdcounting

A June poll conducted by the Pew Institute found that two-thirds of people in the United States support the Black Lives Matter movement. This also shows that most white Americans currently believe that the death of George Freud is “part of the excessive police violence against African Americans”, which makes Trump and his white supremacist supporters a minority . At the same time, RealClearPolitics’ betting odds show that on June 2, shortly after the “Black People’s Fate” movement emerged in the United States, the odds of Biden and Trump began to swap.

The winning percentage of Trump VS Biden in the 2020 election. Image source: RealClearPolitics

In the face of rising anti-racism protests, the Washington Post stated that Biden could lead by a large margin without even participating in the race. In fact, Biden only needs to convey to voters that he advocates racial peace and unity, which is different from racial separatist Trump.

In the new party platform adopted by the Democratic National Convention in August, Biden promised to solve the problem of “systemic racism” in American society within 100 days after taking office. He also took the resolution of race issues as part of his economic recovery plan and promised to increase capital investment in areas such as education, employment, income, housing, and support for small businesses to ensure that ethnic minorities have equal opportunities.

Stable constant: people’s favorability towards Biden

During the 2020 general election, the rapidly changing international environment and domestic situation have largely shaped the competitive landscape. For Biden, in addition to standing still and waiting for Trump to “stab him”, the American people’s stable trust in him is also a key factor in helping him enter the White House.

Compared with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016, the American people have maintained a stable favorability for Biden. In March 2019, before Biden officially announced his candidacy, Nelson Cunningham, the head of the policy consulting firm McLarty Associates, who served as legal counsel to Biden’s Senate Judiciary Committee, praised Biden’s role among Democratic voters. Popularity: “If you ask a Democrat to nominate two of the best candidates in his mind, then Biden will be on the list of most people. Although he may not be everyone’s first choice, he will be at least second. select.”

At the same time, according to a personal traits survey released by the Pew Institute, respondents believe that Biden is more honest, more empathetic, and gentler than Trump, and can be regarded as a good role model. Under the special background of epidemic fears and waves of anti-racial discrimination, voters are naturally more psychologically inclined to Biden, who is more responsible and empathetic, to lead them out of the darkness.

Comparison of the personal characteristics of Trump and Biden. Source: Pew Institute

In response, the political editor of the American conservative news media “Washington Examiner” said frankly: “The biggest trouble Trump has encountered is that Biden is not as hateful as Hillary.”

Repairing scars-a long way to go

Looking back at the Trump administration, at home, the American social and economic order has been hit by the new crown epidemic and the wave of anti-racism demonstrations; abroad, due to frictions in trade and defense spending, the relationship between the United States and its former allies has grown. Alienation; and frequent “retirements” have also made the United States gradually lose its central position on the international stage.

In this regard, Biden once published an article in the “Foreign Policy” magazine in April 2020 that he plans to rejuvenate the United States in steps after taking office and protect the development of the United States economy. Its core goal is to look forward to the United States’ leadership again. world. Compared with the unilateral policy of Trump’s period, Biden’s ruling program appears to be more moderate and rational:

First of all, Biden will promote the restoration and revitalization of the domestic democratic system and strengthen the democratic alliance with all over the world. This aspect requires the promotion of reforms in domestic education, criminal justice, government accountability, immigration and other systems; more importantly, the United States will repair its relationship with traditional allies such as NATO countries. This is not only a barrier for the United States to respond to external challenges, but also The key to restoring American leadership.

In terms of economic policy, Biden, like Trump, raised economic security to the height of national security. However, on the path to realization, Biden criticized Trump’s unwise trade war. Although he hurt the enemy a thousand, he hurt himself eight hundred. Therefore, he emphasized the maintenance of multilateral trade agreements; at the same time, Biden said that he would increase investment in research and development and promote the construction of green energy, quantum computers, artificial intelligence, 5G and high-speed rail to meet the challenges of other countries.

In the field of professional diplomacy, throughout Biden’s career as a senator, he has served as chairman of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee twice, paying particular attention to issues involving “ethical codes” such as human rights, racial discrimination, poverty reduction, and disarmament around the world. The Yugoslav Civil War and the Iraq War played a vital role in many key foreign policy decisions.

Biden believes that diplomacy should be the primary tool of American power. He will put U.S. diplomacy in the hands of professional diplomats and restore the credibility of U.S. diplomacy destroyed by Trump, thus rebuilding the world’s confidence in U.S. leadership.

The epidemic is rampant, protests have been repeated, and reality may be far more cruel than ideals. For the incoming Biden administration, it will be a long and difficult road to restore government services, foreign policy, and national credibility that Trump has destroyed.

“Your vote is about the essence of this country-dignity, honor, and respect. Let everyone be dignified and ensure that everyone has the same opportunities.” Biden said in the last television debate on October 22. “I will definitely let you get what you didn’t get in the past 4 years in the next 4 years.”

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