Source: Niu Danqin
It feels like this is the most important thing in the world today, none of them.
Because of Brexit, there is another big mistake. The result is: Black Swans may come at any time.
Speaking of which, this is really a “western divorce”: first, after tearing up for three years, it was a feather, and finally on January 31 this year, the official announcement: we have left; then there is an 11-month cooling-off period. According to reason, the date expires on December 31 this year, and I officially went to get a certificate to break up; but now that the two sides have broken up again, it is likely not Let’s get the certificate together…
The consequences, you know.
There is really not much time left for Britain and the European Union.
Time is already very tight. If there is no agreement on December 31, the United Kingdom and the European Union will really split up and return to the WTO framework, the border inspection of the border inspection, and the tariff of the tariff.
That is to say, a couple completely tore their faces and became passers-by.
That is undoubtedly a disaster for the already bad British economy, the EU economy, and even the world economy. It’s not too much to say that it’s a black swan, and it’s big and fat.
Both sides are trying to avoid the worst results.
In late November, the two sides began talks, but some members of the EU negotiating team unfortunately diagnosed. In order to avoid a pot, the two sides turned to online talks.
Online talks were not satisfying. On November 28, the EU team went to London to resume face-to-face negotiations.
But after talking for a whole week, the conversation was dry, and finally, I left unhappy.
Three focus issues:
Fair playing field,
The two sides are not mutually beneficial and can’t talk about each other at all.
In fact, tearing it back and forth, on the surface, is for profit, but it is simply a lack of trust.
The European Union does not believe in the British at all. According to foreign media, the European Union believes that after Brexit, the British can do anything, such as drastically cutting social welfare and lowering environmental standards. How can we Europeans compete if you do this?
Therefore, Britain, you must have a warranty clause. But the British are very wronged. Why do you wear colored glasses to look at me? Such a clause is too humiliating.
As for the fishing industry, Britain and France are tearing more.
Britain is an island country with a vast sea area. The EU insists that you can leave the EU, but our fishermen have the right to continue to fish in the 200-nautical-mile area of the United Kingdom, which is a traditional fishing ground.
Britain jumped up. Why? You deceive others too much. Now that we have Brexit, we are a sovereign and independent country.
But French farmers are not easy to provoke. Anyone who cares about France knows that tractors, harvesters, cattle and sheep often drive into the city of Paris. Don’t think it’s a joke. French farmers often do this. Macron has been surrounded by cattle and sheep before. If you are again surrounded by dead fish, it will smell bad…
Therefore, France resolutely refuses to let go. Clement Boehner, the French Minister of European Affairs, promised: “I want to tell our fishermen, our manufacturers and citizens that we will not accept agreements with adverse terms.”
If you don’t agree, we will use the veto.
Britain and France have an old enemy.
The European Union should see through the British.
No matter how loud Brexit is, once the British are really free, they can’t get rid of it.
Originally, breaking up with harmony and saying goodbye happily was also a gentlemanly act.
But the British are very ungentleman. This Western-style divorce has been tossing around for more than three years. The climax is one after another. The chicken feathers and black swans often fly. The financial market can jump up and down than monkeys, which is really eye-opening.
This desire to get away from this, last year, the French Minister of European Affairs, Natalie Loisseau, couldn’t help but sarcastically said:
I finally decided to name my cat Brexit… It meows wildly every morning and wakes me up because it wants to go out. But when I opened the door, it was always hesitant to sit there. When I put it outside the door, it seemed to be breathless…
The French are so mean that the British are very angry. But the Europeans clapped their hands and said it vividly.
At the beginning of this year, Brexit was finally announced; but by the end of the year, the old problem came again.
On Friday, December 4, around three focus issues, the two sides collapsed, and the EU delegation directly returned home.
On Saturday, December 5, Johnson and European Commission President von der Leyen made an emergency phone call: No, we must continue the conversation.
The reason is very simple. If you don’t seize the time and finally collapse, the $1 trillion trade between the two sides will face a major impact. This year’s world is not good, and the British and European Union economy are in a slump. If you do this again, the financial market must be a tsunami and the black swan will come again.
So, on Sunday, December 7th, you all don’t rest. You must go back to the negotiating table to continue the conversation.
This time, you British people go to Brussels to talk.
Seeing a British source describe it like this: This negotiation is like the last roll of the dice…
Why is it so difficult to talk about?
Because it is more difficult to touch interests than to touch the soul, not to mention political calculations.
For Johnson, he must show that he firmly defends Britain’s sovereignty, otherwise Brexit will be a big deal, the British will not agree, and his status may be suspended.
The European Union must tell the world: I have shown a tough stance on Britain. If you want to retire, you can retreat. There are benefits to retreat. So how can the EU fool around? A group of little brothers are about to separate their families.
Therefore, although these three core issues, especially fishing, are actually very small compared with the trade volume of the two sides of one trillion yuan, they have become a roadblock.
In this world, without trust, it is difficult to talk about anything.
Then can the British do things without delaying?
Historically, it’s terrible! Cleanliness has never been a characteristic of the British. Therefore, you see, its withdrawal from Hong Kong must lay an foreshadowing; withdrawing from Palestine and Israel, leaving a Palestinian issue immediately; withdrawing from India and Pakistan will lead to one war after another…
Negotiations are still going on, and the wicked have their own grind.
At the best result, both sides took a step back and reached an agreement, and everyone was very happy.
The worst result is to lift the table and leave, financial markets, and tsunamis hit.
For China, none of this has anything to do with us, but we have to be vigilant. After all, 2020 is just over 20 days, and the new black swan is fluttering. No matter how detached we are, we are also part of the world, and we must be fully prepared psychologically.
Toss around, you just keep to tossing!