December 16th, local time, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve closed its interest rate meeting for two consecutive days. According to the Federal Reserve dot chart, committee members expect interest rates to remain unchanged until the end of 2023. The meeting also released multi-year expectations for inflation, unemployment and economic growth.
The dot matrix shows that 17 Fed officials are in line with their positions in September. All officials are expected to remain near zero interest rates at least until 2021, and 16 of them expect the current interest rate level to continue until 2022, and only four officials expect to raise interest rates in 2023.
However, it is worth mentioning that the prediction of the dot matrix may not be accurate. For example, the dot matrix released by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December 2018 indicates that interest rates will be raised twice in 2019, but in fact, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2019.
The meeting also issued multi-year expectations for inflation, unemployment and economic growth, and the Federal Reserve continued to raise a number of economic expectations compared with September and June. The Federal Reserve raised the growth rate of the U.S. economy to -2.4% this year (September forecast -3.7 percent, June forecast -6.5%), recover to 4.2% in 2021 (September forecast 4%, June forecast 5%), and 2022 to 3.2 percent (September forecast 3%, June forecast 3.5%).
This year’s unemployment rate is expected to be lowered to 6.7% (7.6% in September and 9.3% in June), 5.0% in 2021 (5.5% in September and 6.5% in June), and 4.2% in 2022 (4.6% in September and 5.5% in June. .5%).
PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation is 1.2% this year (September forecast 1.2%, June forecast 0.8%), and will rebound to 1.8% and 1.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively (1.7% and 1.8% for September, and 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, respectively. 1.7%).
Core PCE inflation is 1.4% this year (September forecast value 1.5%, June forecast value 1.0%), 2021 and 2022 will be 1.8% and .9% respectively.