Eurasia Group, a world-renowned political consulting company, recently released its “Top Ten Risks in the World in 2021” report, ranking “Tear America” first.
The report said that the political polarization, the difficulties of democracy, social injustice, and a series of problems caused by failed foreign policy in the United States make it difficult for the superpower to get back on track, and “a torn superpower will be the trouble for all”.
From “the world’s first power” to “the world’s number one risk”, what happened to the United States, which once claimed to be a “global leader”?
First of all, the contradictions in the United States continue to accumulate and intensify in the COVID-19 epidemic, affecting the stability of the United States itself.
From the 2008 financial crisis to the beginning of 2020, the U.S. economy has experienced nearly 12 years of prosperity. However, the vast majority of the fruits of this round of economic growth have been seized by the rich and emerging tech upstarts, from which a large number of middle-class and low-income groups have not benefited.
Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, the gap between rich and poor has widened further, and the phenomenon of “two Americas” has become more broken.
On the one hand, the unemployment rate in the United States has remained high because the epidemic has hit the service industry that provides a large number of jobs.
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor in mid-December, the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States rose to 885,000 in a week, the highest level in three months.
On the other hand, the assets of the wealthy in the United States continue to grow rapidly, with the total wealth held by 650 billionaires in the United States at the end of November 2020.
During the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2008, protesters shouted the slogan “99% against 1%”, but 12 years later, the 1% of the rich have more wealth, and they are even more incomtant with the lives of 99% of the people. In this case, the tearing of American society is inevitable.
The Eurasian Group believes that for the incoming Biden administration, domestic problems will be the most important risk it faces, which will adversely affect “renewed confidence in the international community in the global leadership of the United States”.
Secondly, the tearing of American society has exacerbated political polarization and plunged the United States into institutional quagmire. Over the past three years, the conflict between the left and right political forces in the United States has intensified and reached a new height this year.
On January 6th local time, the U.S. Congress will finally confirm that Democratic presidential candidate Biden is the winner of the 2020 presidential election.
However, as of press time, the scene of the losing party’s admission in the American political tradition has not yet been staged. Instead, allegations such as “election fraud” and “election corruption” are rampant.
Some Republican lawmakers also insist that Congress reject the voting results of the electoral college in the disputed states. The U.S. media and some politicians have recently repeatedly warned that the United States is at risk of “civil war”.
Bloomberg believes that these election disputes that have been postponed to this day will seriously damage the legitimacy of the Biden administration and raise doubts about the political system in the United States.
Intensification of political polarization has plunged the United States into an incompromising circle of “veto politics”, which in turn further stimulates antagonism within society.
In this situation, it is increasingly difficult for American society to seek consensus and compromise, and social inclusion, coordination ability and economic vitality have all been greatly reduced.
Finally, in the past few years, the international reputation of the United States has been hit hard, and the “city on the top of the mountain” has been overshadowed.
Over the past three years, the Trump administration has significantly reversed the Obama administration’s foreign policy of global cooperation and multilateralism and pursued a foreign policy of “America First” and unilateralism.
One of the focuses of American diplomacy is to withdraw from the group: withdraw from the United Nations Human Rights Council, withdraw from UNESCO, Withdrawal from the World Health Organization; withdraw from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, withdraw from international arms control agreements such as the INF Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty, withdraw from the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue and other important international agreements related to the destiny of mankind and international security.
At the same time, the United States has also used its hegemony in the international political and economic fields to abuse unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction, arbitrarily provoked a trade war, exert extreme pressure on other countries, and constantly block the international community in environmental, regional security, global economic, anti-epidemic and other matters.
This kind of refusal to fulfill international responsibilities and wanton behavior to harm the interests of other countries has caused the image of “guardian” of the United States to collapse. U.S. News & World Report quoted Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasian Group, as saying that other countries no longer regard the United States as a partner “dedicated to long-term development or political role”.
In fact, of the remaining nine global risks listed by Eurasia Group in 2020, there are many issues closely related to the United States.
Nowadays, the United States is like a drunk with a heavy weapon.