January 20, when Biden took office to become the new president of the United States, what would Trump do if he was already sure he would not participate?
Many American media and scholars believe that although Trump has verbally said that he will guarantee the smooth transfer of power, his failure to participate in the power transfer ceremony shows that Trump still does not admit that he has lost the election.
He is unwilling.
Will Trump, who holds nearly 74 million votes, make a comeback in four years? From now on, the answer should be yes. However, if so, it will have a very big impact on Republicans, Democrats and even American politics as a whole.
Republicans and Democrats have now begun to prepare in case of this.
U.S. President Trump was originally considering leaving Washington on January 19, but the latest news shows that he plans to leave on the morning of Biden’s inauguration day on the 20th.
It seems that the president of the United States is still “reluctant” about his days in the White House, which also sends a signal from one side that Trump will do everything possible to return here in four years.
According to Reuters, a source revealed that Trump will also hold an event in conjunction with the inauguration of President-elect Biden, and he is now planning to hold a “farewell event” for his supporters at Joint Base Andrews.
As a result of Trump’s speech in Washington on January 6, enthusiastic supporters later violently stormed the Capitol, which made Trump the target of public criticism and even the “public enemy of the country” of the United States.
This time, Trump has been very low-key and has not yet revealed what he will say at this “farewell ceremony”.
However, some analysts predict that the keynote of Trump’s speech at this event is likely that he did not lose in the election, encouraging his supporters to “continue to fight”!
In this way, the “farewell ceremony” is likely to become a “mobilization conference” for the purpose of re-election in four years. Andrew Joint Base is located in the outskirts of Washington and is Air Force One.
This is actually a symbol of the power of the President of the United States, but it is certainly not as dazzling as the power transfer ceremony held outside the White House.
After leaving the Andrew Joint Base, Trump is likely to fly to Palm Beach, Florida, to start a new life at the Mar-a-Lago Club.
Although some media photographed that the moving vehicles had been moving in and out of the White House since January 15, cartons large and small were being moved out of the White House, and even photographers photographed the “Big Princess” wearing a red dress in directing the moving vehicle to work in an orderly manner, which did not seem so depressed. However, I don’t see Trump himself.
Some people familiar with the matter revealed that Trump’s mentality is still very unstable.
Since he went to Texas a few days ago to visit the border wall he mainly built, Trump has not appeared again.
He has basically stayed in the bedroom of the White House, and the work outside has been left to Pence.
Trump’s last days at the White House, full of anger and turmoil, watched the House debate on his second impeachment on TV and was extremely angry to see Republicans’ betrayal of him.
He banned everyone from mentioning this matter, and “early resignation” became a forbidden word for the White House.
However, not everyone is in contact with Trump.
For example, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Trump has repeatedly called his former senior adviser Bannon in recent weeks to seek advice on how to reverse the re-election failure.
Although Trump has not admitted Biden’s victory and hopes to overthrow the existing voting results on charges such as “fake votes” or “election fraud”, these efforts have not succeeded.
After the “defeat of the Vietnam War”, Trump became less and less convinced of some people on the current campaign, and some people also felt that Trump was “obstinate”, and many people gradually left.
So Trump turned his sights to his “old friends” who were willing to tell him what he wanted to hear.
Bannon is one of them.
People familiar with the matter said that because the conversation between Bannon and Trump has been going on in private, it is not clear what the conversation between the two is.
Bannon, who was the leader of the Trump campaign, is considered to be one of the main contributors to Trump’s victory in 2016.
And two other meritors who won Trump in 2016, campaign chairman Manafort and long-time ally Roger Stone, were released from prison by Trump at the last minute.
This may not be accidental.
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In the short month of leaving office, Trump has suffered an unprecedented blow.
Especially on January 6, he thought it was the last chance to turn the tables.
As long as Vice President Pence refused to recognize the results of the electoral college’s vote in the Capitol, hundreds of thousands of his fanatic supporters outside the Capitol “pressured” to cooperate inside and outside the Capitol, which could change everything.
But in the end, his “perfect plan” was empty, except for supporters who violently attacked the Capitol.
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The reality now is that the relationship between Trump and Vice President Pence broke down, and several ministers and senior advisers in the cabinet announced their resignations after January 6 and left him.
Even the Republican allies abandoned him, and even the Republican Party has begun to cut off with him.
Trump is angry with the Republican Party now.
He believes that the traditional Republicans “slash him in the back” at a critical moment.
According to Trump’s character, he will “continue to fight” and do everything he can to prove that the traditional Republicans’ decisions today are wrong.
With this mental motivation, he will make a comeback in four years as long as American law allows and his physical condition allows.
Because he feels like he has plenty of capital, the 74 million votes that support him are more for him than those for the Republican Party – if it were not for him, the Republican Party would have been a disastrous defeat before 2016.
He was the “savior” of the Republican Party.
However, in the eyes of senior Republican politicians, agreeing to Trump to represent the Republican Party in the election in 2016, competing with Hillary was a helpless move to “treat a dead horse as a living horse doctor”.
At that time, no traditional political elite in the Republican Party could compete with Hillary.
In the end, Trump, an untraditional political elite, could defeat Hillary, which was somewhat unexpected.
In the next four years, the Republican Party and Trump were superficially harmonious, but in private they also struggled to adapt to each other.
In the words of American scholars, the Republican Party accommodated Trump more, and Trump only followed the Republican Party’s advice in a few cases, especially after the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats took control of the House of Representatives.
In the 2020 election, the Republican Party thought that Trump could win the election smoothly, so that some Republican politicians could have more opportunities to experience it for four more years.
But the growing coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. has broken this “calculation”.
Facing the results of the balloting in various states after the election voting day, the Republican Party is hesitant to continue to “go crazy” with Trump and not recognize Biden’s victory.
After all, the traditional political elites of the United States know that if American democracy wants to continue to play, it must abide by the “unspoken rules” and not tear their faces, otherwise no one can play.
On January 6, Trump mobilized supporters to Washington, D.C., and what happened later, made the senior Republicans firmly aware that they must be cut off with Trump, otherwise they will be suppressed by the “political correctness” of the United States like a mountain and have a chance to turn around.
The reason why they have this understanding is also based on several judgments:
First, Trump has lost his most powerful “mobilization weapon” – Twitter, and almost all mainstream social media in the United States have closed or restricted Trump’s personal accounts, as well as some content related to him.
In this way, whether Trump can maintain his appeal among his supporters in the future is to draw a question mark.
Secondly, many American companies began to “demarcate” from Trump because of their “political correctness”.
For example, Deutsche Bank, the largest source of loans for Trump’s family business, has said that it will no longer do business with Trump or his company in the future.
Signature Bank is also going to cut off its relationship with Trump, saying it will close two of his personal accounts.
After Wall Street’s actions, the technology giants in Silicon Valley, such as Microsoft and Amazon, have suspended political financial support for both parties in the United States.
Some Republican “supporting” lawmakers have carried out targeted political donations “lockdown”.
You should know who has the stronger fundraising ability and who has the confidence to win the election in American democracy.
Third, the Republican Party can no longer rely on Trump’s “halo” and must create a new “star figure” as soon as possible to gather the attention of the conservative people.
For example, Pompeo, who was still madly showing “hard on China” in his last week of his term, is also showing this willingness.
Since Trump lost the election, many people in the Republican Party and around Trump know that the trend of “understanding the king” has actually gone, but everyone has not said it superficially.
But in the federal government, many people have begun to resign or are busy looking for their homes. But Pompeo, like a winding machine, not only spares no effort to criticize China, but also visits some ally countries without stopping. Obviously, it is all your last time to accumulate your popularity.
In fact, before becoming the second secretary of state of the Trump administration, Pompeo, 57, was not well known in the United States.
After graduating from West Point, he joined the military camp, but only stayed for five years. Later, he was mainly active in the business community.
It was not until 2011 that he abandoned business and became a Republican congressman.
Even so, Pompeo was nominated by Trump as the director of the CIA in 2016, and it began to attract attention.
Pompeo is a tough conservative Tea Party member of the Republican Party and a close ally of Vice President Pence.
His position on some issues is similar to Trump’s, and he is also tactful and values relations with European allies.
Therefore, it is not impossible for the future Republican Party to use its platform to give Pompeo more opportunities to show off to attract conservative voters who originally supported Trump.
The top Republican Party believes that “TRUMP”, a golden signboard, has become a “poison” that everyone can avoid.
Fighting with the Democratic Party to the end is actually the biggest driving force for Trump’s comeback four years later.
Why didn’t Trump give up at the last minute this time and want to reverse the “failure”? One is that because he feels that he has the lead in the vote on the spot and there is no coronavirus epidemic, he is determined to be re-elected president.
Second, because he knows that if he steps down, the Democratic Party will certainly not give up on him, and even when he is in office, he keeps investigating and impeaching “communicating Russia”.
In the concept of Trump and his ardent supporters, they are the real “patriots” of the United States, and they must rescue the United States from the crisis in their way.
On the other hand, Trump is the biggest opponent in the Democratic Party’s view.
Even for the next four years, if Trump maintains his influence, he will still have a large “threat” in 2024.
Therefore, Trump must be “rooted”.
Looking at the criticism of Trump by major media in the United States and the ban on Trump by American social media, many people think that Trump’s support among the public will plummet after the violent impact on Congress on January 6.
However, the reality is not the case. The latest U.S. poll shows that conservative voters’ satisfaction with Trump remains high.
According to a new NBC poll, despite facing a second impeachment on charges of “inciting supporters to seize Congress” and the House of Representatives has passed the relevant proposal, conservatives’ satisfaction with Trump has hardly changed, and 87% of the Republican voters interviewed still support it. Hold Trump.
This result is as high as 89% of Republican voters who affirmed Trump’s governance performance before the presidential election at the end of last October.
The investigation is actually very telling: the division and antagonism in the United States have actually solidified.
Despite the violent impact on Congress on January 6, a rare “big event” in the United States in nearly a hundred years, and despite the efforts of traditional political elites such as the Democratic Party and the media to criticize Trump, the latter’s support among conservative people.
It’s still very high.
This time with less than two weeks left for Trump, Democrats proposed a “second impeachment” against Trump, mainly because Trump supporters stormed the Capitol and accused the president of sedition.” Presidential sedition”, which has not been seen in the history of the United States for nearly 100 years, is very serious.
The impeachment clause states that Trump’s actions indicate that “if he stays in office, it will pose a threat to national security, democracy and the constitution”, and calls for immediate impeachment of Trump and prohibit him from taking federal office again.
This is the most ruthless move!
Even if impeachment is passed, not only will Trump step down in the last few days, but Trump will not want to run for the 2024 election in the future.
This is equivalent to completely cutting off the way back for Trump to make a comeback in 2024.
Although it is impossible to pass the impeachment of Trump in the Senate, the American media said that the Democrats have not given up.
They tried to confirm the impeachment of Trump through the Senate after he left office, so that he might not be able to hold or run for federal office in the future.
At that time, the Democratic Party had a narrow margin in the Senate. This is what the Democratic Party wants.
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