In the long history of the world, January 6 is the anniversary of some important figures and major events in the world, but these are of the past and most of them do not arouse much interest.
But what will happen in the United States on January 6 this year is of great concern, because it will determine the fate of the United States.
Trump does not admit the election results.
The winter is coming in the United States.
In the history of presidential elections in the United States of America, January 6 is usually just a procedural and ritual day.
After the first four election procedures, the Senate and the House of Representatives of the United States Congress held a joint meeting on this day to officially unpack, count and count the electoral votes on the spot.
Finally, the President and President of the Senate of the United States, supervised and supervised, announced the name of the next President of the United States. Since then, the quadrennial presidential election has come to an end. The next president made final preparations for the swearing-in on January 20.
But on January 6 this year, Trump insisted that there was widespread fraud and corruption in the election, vowed to stop Biden’s election, and incited a large number of hardcore organizations across the United States because of Trump’s refusal to admit to accept the election results of November 3 last year and the election of 538 members of the Electoral College of December 14th.
Supporters protested, and this day became a rainy day in the United States.
The world pays close attention to the United States on January 6.
Americans and many people in the world are waiting for the arrival of this day and paying attention to what will happen on this day.
January 6, 2021 Eastern time will not only determine the fate of the so-called “elected president” of the United States, but also determine the fate of the United States in the next four years and even the future.
Two scripts and two sets of people have been rehearsing for a long time. One is to rehearse in accordance with U.S. laws and regulations and the tradition of Congress, and it will be officially held on January 6th local time:
U.S. Vice President and President of the Senate Pence presided over the voting and check-in ceremony, and finally announced the presidential election results confirmed by both houses on behalf of the Senate and the two houses.
The ceremony will be held in a grand and rapid manner and End; Another plot is that there is a major dispute on the scene, because this will be Trump’s last chance to save his defeat.
It is predictable and guessing how Trump, the director-in-chief and leading actor, will play the play, but the specific plot is difficult to predict.
Perhaps, in addition to the on-site, there are off-site; in addition to the capital Washington, there are other places in the United States; even in addition to the United States, there are also foreign countries. Storms and showers may occur at the same time. Because Trump is not only shrewd and cunning, but also extremely crazy and bottomless.
Since the election statistics on November 7 last year, Trump has been trying to change the election results, including public and private, white and underworld, legal challenge lawsuits and street threats of force.
Almost all the means he can think of are used, and even give his subordinates and local state officials. It is crazy and absurd to give him a death order and hard indicators to find a vote that can turn defeat into victory. This kind of madness and absurdity is nothing like what a president who claims to be a democracy does.
Trump also threatened that he had a large amount of evidence of election fraud in the United States and would be shaken out at a joint meeting of the Houses on January 6. It’s true or false, only he knows. But analysts mostly believe that this is just another fraud by Trump.
If he really has such evidence in his hand, can he wait until now? But it has never been Trump’s usual trick to make it out of nothing. He believes that “the soldiers are never tired of deceit”, despite failure again and again.
It’s possible to make trouble, but impossible to ruin the scene.
It is certain that Trump and his cronies and hardcore made a scene on January 6 and even tried to smash the scene. The U.S. Constitution also gave him such opportunities and opportunities.
By statute, confirmation of the presidential agenda of both houses and debate for two hours can be postponed as long as two members of Congress, one from the House of Representatives and the other from the Senate, challenge the election results and refuse to accept it.
If someone in the debate puts forward evidence that is obviously unfavorable to the president-elect, it will be troublesome. If necessary, both houses of Congress must vote on who the next president is.
Although Trump has ignored the facts and has failed to present almost any evidence of subversive evidence in more than 50 lawsuits since the election, only some of Pennsylvania’s election results have been adjusted at the local and federal levels in the United States, and Georgia and other places have recounted the votes three times and confirmed that the election results are correct.
However, Trump still attracted a group of hardcore supporters in the Republican Party to complain about it by various means such as coercion and temptation.
According to Republican estimates, nearly 150 Republican representatives and 12 senators have said that they will refuse to certify the election results at a joint session of Congress on January 6, blocking the Biden’s election process, which makes the day more interesting.
As for what will happen outside the Capitol Hill, large-scale street demonstrations in support of Trump and against Biden’s election will be a high probability.
A large number of extreme and hardcore supporters of Trump are flocking to Washington from all over the United States, and many people are also armed.
But most of these people are making noises, making trouble, cheering for Trump and helping him calm down. It is expected that nothing will happen. No matter how powerful the extremist group Brave Boy is, it is not the opponent of the heavily armed police and the armed army.
Some Republican lawmakers are unwilling.
Some Republican lawmakers issued a statement demanding that the U.S. “Congress immediately appoint an election committee with sufficient investigative authority and conduct an urgent review of the election results of the disputed states within 10 days”.
The statement also called on Congress to “convene special legislative sessions, if necessary, to change the electoral votes of the states if necessary”. But these protesters are very clear that they also have no chance of success.
These lawmakers cited a precedent that appeared in the United States in 1877: at that time, because presidential candidates of both parties announced their victory in three states locally, Congress had to form a bilateral committee to investigate the election results.
However, unlike the 1877 election, the 2020 general election held in any state did not have any partisan conflict because of the status of the winning candidate.
The court dealt with these differences, and the election results were even controlled by the Republican majority legislative committee and dominated by the Republican governor. In the state of governance, the certification has also been completed relatively smoothly.
For Trump and his supporters, the time spent in the White House has been counted down.
They are neither willing, extremely frustrated and afraid. According to U.S. law, Trump’s president is now actually a temporary position and will officially end at 12:01 p.m. on January 20. After that, Trump cannot stay in the presidency for even a minute.
Even if you stay in the White House, you will no longer be the President of the United States.
The new president can do anything to forcibly drive Trump away. If Trump really relies on this level, I’m afraid it will be a ridiculous joke in American and world politics.
The biggest crisis facing Trump lies within the Republican Party.
The biggest problem or crisis facing Trump at present lies mainly in his Republican Party, especially in the top and core circles of the Republican Party. On the surface, it seems that Trump still has a large number of congressmen who continue to support him, but in fact, most of them are insincere, mainly to show Trump for his future political future.
There is a long-standing consensus within the Republican Party that Trump’s resignation is an unchangeable cruel reality.
In terms of party-wide interests and image, it is more beneficial for Republicans to leave Trump one day earlier, because Trump’s unscrupulous and lawless practices have aroused and are arousing more dissatisfaction and even public indignation in American politics, society and voters, and continue to be tied to Trump, doing more harm than good.
But in reality, Trump still has strong control over the Republican Party, or the current leader of the Republican Party is him. In particular, behind Trump is a powerful force of tens of millions of right-wing voters in the United States.
If they part ways with Trump at this moment, they will become a minority in the party and can no longer use these powerful right-wing forces in the future. Trump is a retaliatory and extreme person, and if they refuse to stand with Trump, they will be immediately reprisalized.
After the tearing of political parties in the United States and the continuous party struggle in recent years, two major factions have been formed in the Republican Party.
One is an extreme hardliner headed by Trump, and the other is a moderate faction with a political opinion. However, who the leader of the moderate faction has not been revealed at present and dares not be easily revealed.
Although Trump has said that if he steps down this time, he will continue to run for President of the United States in four years. But he also said that he did not plan to run again four years later.
Trump is definitely a capricious person. Few words of his words are true. Some American media said that perhaps only his wife Melania, daughter Ivanka and two sons who are more extreme than Trump understand what he really thinks inside him.
Judging from Trump’s personality, it is very possible that Trump will continue to run for the presidency of the United States, and will do so from the day Biden takes office.
Many people in the Republican Party can’t help but want to run for President of the United States.
It is worth noting that in addition to Trump, there are also some people in the Republican Party who are eager to try. Several senators such as Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz have said that they are ambitious to run for the 2024 presidential election.
But Vice President Pence is considered to be the most likely to run for the next U.S. president. Pence calmly and not much in public, but the city is deep. If he runs in the Republican Party, his qualifications and advantages are obvious to others.
But after all, Pence is carried by Trump. If he runs for president in the future, he cannot do without the help of Trump and his forces. Therefore, no matter how Trump performs, Pence tries his best to stand by Trump openly and show “ill loyalty”.
But Pence has kept a low profile on Trump’s blindly subversion of the election results during this period, and at best only expressed “welcome lawmakers” to question the election results. Therefore, Pence’s reputation inside and outside the Republican Party is not bad.
Many public opinion believes that Pence and Trump are not really the same person, but only the same person with vested interests. Although Trump has individually coached and directed Pence’s performance on January 6, how Pence will perform at that time is still up to him. In this sense, the time has come to really test Pence.
Moderates are getting farther and farther away from Trump
What frustrated Trump was that some leaders such as Republican leader McConnell in the U.S. Senate, gradually distanced themselves from Trump after the election results became clear, especially the results of the Electoral College, and even publicly congratulated President-elect Biden.
“The smooth transfer of power is a hallmark of our democracy,” said Rob Portman, a Republican from Ohio state.
“While I’ve supported President Trump, the vote in the electoral college has made it clear that Biden is now elected president.” Republican Senator John Barroso of Wyoming also accepted Biden’s victory, saying, “I vote for Trump, but I respect the results of the Electoral College.”
Biden won 306 electoral votes, compared with 232 for Trump, which is far from the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected.
The ambiguous and even “anti-water” attitude of these people is extremely bad for Trump and makes him unhappy.
If there is a major disagreement at the confirmation ceremony on January 6th and Congress is forced to vote again, it is almost impossible for Trump to turn the tables.
Because Democrats have a majority of votes in the U.S. House of Representatives, many Republicans in the Senate have rejected this step, and the number of members of both parties in the Senate is close, before Georgia’s Senate election was confirmed, Republicans had 50 seats, but Democrats also had 48 seats.
Even if some or even a large part of Congressmen support Trump, it will not change the outcome of confirming Biden’s election. At most, there are drama or farces that calm Trump down.
Trump is just a “paper tiger”
The Biden camp has maintained rational and calm about the recent actions of the Trump camp and tried to avoid head-on conflict. Biden spokesman Baskey said that some Republicans’ attempts were “very strange”.
The Biden camp is obviously smarter and more popular than the Trump camp to do so. Once Trump leaves the White House, Biden has plenty of opportunities to clean up with Trump.
History will eventually turn the page of the 2020 election in the United States, but the consequences of political chaos and so-called democratic elections in the United States will last for a long time.
As for what else Trump may be crazy outside the United States on January 6 and even before the new president takes office on January 20, it needs to be vigilant, but there is no need to worry too much.
It has long proved that Trump is just a “paper tiger”. Although he is the commander-in-chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, it is difficult to mobilize troops on a large scale at this moment, let alone launch a war. During this period, even Iran has dealt with him more than enough.