From the end of the year to the beginning of the year, Iran and the United States have their own actions, which have attracted the attention of the international community.
An Iranian government spokesman said on January 4 that Iran has begun to take measures to increase uranium enrichment to 20%, and has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency of the action.
The United States has recently increased its military activities around Iran. First, two U.S. long-range strategic bombers flew to the Middle East on December 30, 2020.
Then, on January 3 this year, the U.S. Department of Defense changed its idea of withdrawing the aircraft carrier Nimitz and ordered it to continue to be deployed in the Middle East waters to deal with the so-called “recent threat posed by Iran”.
Why did Iran do this? How does the United States respond? Please watch the Xinhua News Agency reporter’s report–
Let’s talk about Iran first. Two motives and one factor are worth paying attention to.
First, there is an explanation at home.
January 3 is the first anniversary of the killing of senior Iranian general Suleimani by a U.S. drone in Iraq. Anti-American rallies and marches were held in many parts of the Middle East to mourn the powerful general with a large number of supporters.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have previously reiterated that Suleimani’s feud must not be forgotten and revenged.
On January 1, the head of Suleimani, the commander of the “Quds Brigade” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, was projected on the Liberty Tower, a landmark building in Tehran, to commemorate the anniversary of Suleimani’s death. Xinhua News Agency
Second, put pressure on the United States.
Analysts pointed out that Iran wants to use the measure of increasing uranium enrichment to pressure the incoming Biden administration of the United States, hoping to obtain more chips in the future in the negotiations on a comprehensive agreement on the return of the United States to Iran’s nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions against Iran.
Third, in addition to the above motives, an electoral factor is still worth paying attention to.
The dust of the U.S. presidential election has finally settled, but the presidential election in Iran will be held in June this year. Analysts believe that whether the new Iranian president is from conservatives or reformists is related to the direction of U.S.-Iran relations and the fate of the Iran nuclear agreement.
Liu Lanyu, a visiting scholar at Tehran University and an expert on Iran at Tsinghua University, told Xinhua News Agency that if conservative leaders are elected or will promote Iran to take more offensives in regional affairs, it may be more difficult to ease the relationship between the United States and Iran.
If the reformist leader is elected, he may take a lower profile, which means that the United States and Iran will carry out There is more room for negotiation and interaction.
Among them, if current President Rouhani, who represents the reformists, can reach a consensus with the Biden administration on an agreement to return to the Iranian nuclear power before the election, it will undoubtedly benefit the reformist election.
Besides, the United States. There are still variables in the two attitudes.
On the one hand, the old man has to dig a hole.
The unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018 is probably one of the most representative diplomatic actions of the Trump administration.
Since then, the United States has restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran, and the relationship between the United States and Iran has continued to be tense.
Analysts believe that as the Trump administration enters the countdown, the Trump administration and the Israeli government may try to seize this “window period” to increase pressure on Iran to “dig holes” for the next U.S. government to return to the Iran nuclear agreement.
On the other hand, the newcomer wants to restart.
The Iran nuclear agreement was completed during the Obama administration and is regarded as a “political heritage” in the diplomatic field by Obama.
President-elect Biden was his deputy in the year.
Biden and his team have publicly stated on many occasions that the United States will return to the Iran nuclear agreement while Iran abides with the Iran nuclear agreement.
Jack Sullivan, the president’s national security assistant who Biden announced his nomination, reiterated this statement on January 3 and said that the Biden administration would involve Iran’s ballistic missile capability in subsequent negotiations with Iran.
Saudi Arabia and other regional allies have also begun to prepare for the return of the United States to the Iran nuclear agreement or the start of related negotiations after Biden takes office.
Overall, Iran is still “seeking stability” in the eyes of the Biden administration’s upcoming stage; the return to the Iran nuclear agreement will undoubtedly occupy a place in the Biden administration’s foreign policy.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the situation in the United States and Iran will get out of control at the beginning of the year.
In July 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany. According to the agreement, Iran promised to limit its nuclear program and the international community lifted sanctions against Iran.
The U.S. government unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018, and then restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran.
Iran has phased out compliance with some of the terms of the agreement since May 2019, including increasing enriched uranium enrichment to 4.5%, which is higher than the 3.67 percent stipulated in the Iran nuclear agreement, but still far below the enrichment of weapons-grade uranium by at least 90%.
Iran also promised to take measures that were “reversible”.
According to the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the enrichment of civilian-grade uranium is up to 20%.