Faced two impeachments during his presidency, US President Trump set a historical record. The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the provisions of impeachment of President Trump on January 13 local time.
Senate Republican Leader McConnell has expressed his support “rarely” and Trump’s impeachment is a foregone conclusion. The resulting domino effect has begun to appear, and there is no sign of stopping the political tearing and deep social division within the United States.
The U.S. political risk consulting company Eurasia Group recently released the “Top Ten Risks in the World in 2021” report, ranking “political divisions in the United States” at the top of the risk far greater than the “long-term persistence of the coronavirus pandemic”.
Top Republicans “anti-water” support Democrats to impeach Trump
Although President-elect Biden has confirmed to take office on January 20, Democrats are still determined to let Trump step down early. Although Vice President Pence wrote to Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi on the 12th local time, refusing to invoke the 25th amendment to the Constitution to remove President Trump, the House of Representatives officially passed a resolution urging Pence to take action that night. After the resolution was passed, Pence had 24 hours to respond.
If Pence and the majority of Trump’s cabinet do not consider recalling Trump in the end, the House of Representatives will continue to initiate impeachment from Congress, and a plenary vote on the draft impeachment draft articles is expected to be held on the 13th.
According to CNN on January 12, the U.S. House of Representatives’ bill against Trump’s only impeachment clause is called “Imeaching US President Donald John Trump with Felony and Misdemeanor”.
The bill states that “This act of Donald John Trump (‘sedition) shows that if allowed to remain in power, he will continue to pose a threat to national security, democracy and the constitution, and his actions are serious violations of self-government and the rule of law.
Therefore, the impeachment and trial, removal and disqualification of Donald J. Trump, and the disqualification of the position to retain and enjoy any honour, trust or interest of the United States.”
On the afternoon of January 6, Trump supporters captured Capitol Hill and stormed the vote counting process of both houses of Congress and the presidential election in an attempt to change the election results.
On January 11, Democrats in the House of Representatives formally introduced a resolution to impeach President Trump, accusing him of “sedition” and holding him primarily responsible for the impact on Congress.
Although Trump still insisted on the 12th that he was not responsible for the congressional riots, and alleged that impeachment was a continuation of his “witch hunt”, the Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have decided to abandon him.
On the 12th, the Republican House leadership said that it would not ask its members to vote against impeachment, but several Republican lawmakers, including Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Republican Vice President Cheney, the third person in the Republican House of Representatives, have made it clear that they will vote for Trump’s impeachment.
Leeds said on the 12th that the Capitol Hill incident was Trump’s betrayal of his presidency and constitutional oath, and it was Trump who “convowed these mobs and ignited the fire of the attack”.
More notably, McConnell, the Republican leader of the Senate majority who previously defended Trump, also said that he was “hally pleased to see Democrats impeach Trump”. McConnell’s attitude is extremely weathervane on Capitol Hill and is regarded by the American media as the “last straw” to crush Trump.
Sun Chenghao, a scholar at the American Institute of Modern International Relations of China, analyzed in an interview with China Youth Daily · China Youth Network that similar to the “Tongwumen” impeachment in 2019, the House of Representatives is not a big problem in passing the impeachment resolution because the Democratic Party members hold a majority of seats; but in the Senate conviction link, due to the two parties In the Senate divided equally, Democrats must fight for at least 17 Republicans to “anti-water” to convict Trump.
Given Trump’s voter base, daring to “backwater” will be a “painful choice” for Republican lawmakers. Therefore, it is still quite difficult for the impeachment bill to finally pass in the Senate.
Earlier, McConnell had indicated that he would not convene a Republican congressman meeting before January 19, which means that Trump will probably leave office on January 20 even if it is submitted to the Senate.
However, this does not mean that Trump can get rid of impeachment, because even if the Senate passes the impeachment of Trump after leaving office, it can also affect Trump’s benefits and political future after leaving office, including preventing Trump from running again in 2024.
The two parties in Congress have evolved from a secret struggle to an open dispute.
For Democrats, why does the House rush to impeach Trump and want him to step down early with only seven days left in the presidency? Political observers analyzed that the possibility of Democrats completing impeachment before the new president takes office is very low, but they are still determined to initiate impeachment because it is not only Trump, but also the Republicans who sent Trump to the White House.
After Biden came to power on January 20, more political struggles will inevitably break out within the United States.
Democrats hope to seize Trump’s “sedition” to impeach him, thus greatly demoralizing the reputation of the Republican Party and paving the way for the new policy after Biden takes office to pass on Capitol Hill.
On January 13, Schumer, the leader of the U.S. Senate Minority Party (Democratic Party), said in a statement that after the Democratic Party came to power, the first task of the Senate would be to pass further COVID-19 relief measures, which required the support of Republican lawmakers.
For Republicans, why did senior figures in both houses of Congress, especially McConnell, who has supported Trump since he came to power, defected and support the impeachment of the president one after another? Can the Republican Party successfully cut with Trump? Sun Chenghao analyzed that McConnell’s fatal blow to Trump was more about the future and fate of the Republican Party, hoping to completely eliminate the power left by Trump in the Republican Party.
However, considering Trump’s voter base, McConnell is also “arming dangerous” this time, because the right-wing force in the Republican Party and Trump supporters will inevitably portray the move as a “witch hunt” against Trump, which instead promotes the power of “Trumpism” in the Republican Party. Therefore, regardless of the final impeachment outcome, the split and reorganization of the Republican Party will not settle in a short time.
The military expressed support for the constitution to transfer power to the next government.
The current political chaos in the United States is even dangerous to the point where senior military officials are forced to speak frequently.
U.S. Supreme Military General, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mark Milley, and all members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement signed on the 12th that “the right to freedom of expression and assembly does not give anyone the right to resort to violence, riots and riots”, and the military intends to support the constitutional power.
Hand it over to the next administration and remind all U.S. military personnel of their obligation to support and defend the Constitution and reject extremism.
According to the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC), in this extraordinary statement, the Supreme Commander of the U.S. military condemned the “incitement and rebellion” incident at the Capitol on January 6, while acknowledging Biden’s victory in the election.
Several senior officials of the U.S. Department of Defense also revealed that an inter-departmental meeting is planned for January 13 to discuss in depth the security requirements of the upcoming presidential inauguration.
The political chaos in the United States has also raised concerns from international risk assessment agencies.
Eurasian Group, a well-known international political risk consulting company, ranked “American political division” first in its recently released report “Top Ten Risks in the World in 2021”. The report said President Trump’s refusal to admit defeat in the 2020 election and insisted that Democrats “stealed his victory” that never happened in American history, underscoring the extent of the political and social division in the United States, which will continue.
“When a superpower is split in half from the middle, it can’t return to normal,” said Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasian Group.
In Bremer’s view, the division of the United States will also exacerbate the world’s “gone-political recession”.
Because, given the solidity of Trump’s supporters camp, America’s allies will have to consider the possibility that any promises made by the Biden administration may be overturned by another winning president who advocates “America first” in four years.