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International Sharp Comment丨Multiple “positive growth” shows that China’s economy is capable of sustained and stable recovery

China economy Growth Photo by CGTN

Photo by CGTN

China economy Growth “Most parts of the world are still struggling with the Covid-19 epidemic. China has once again proved that after the epidemic is effectively contained, it is possible to achieve rapid economic recovery.”

After the Chinese government released the third quarter economic data on the 19th, the New York Times stated Such an evaluation. 

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China that day,

China’s economic growth rate reached 4.9% in the third quarter;

overall, GDP in the first three quarters increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the growth rate turned from negative to positive, and economic operations continued to recover steadily.

In the latest data released, there are also several figures that “turned from negative to positive for the first time in the year.”

This includes: the quarterly growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the first three quarters, the growth rate of national per capita disposable income in the first three quarters, and the growth rate of total imports and exports of goods in the first three quarters. 

In addition, as of September, the added value of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size has maintained positive growth for six consecutive months; the service industry production index has been increasing for five consecutive months; the total retail sales of consumer goods have been increasing for two consecutive months; the total value of imports and exports of goods has been increasing for four consecutive months. Positive monthly growth. 

The trend of changes in these main indicators strongly proves that China’s epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery are indeed at the forefront of the world. The Wall Street Journal wrote that the growth rate of China’s economy in the third quarter was close to the level before the epidemic, “highlighting the soundness of China’s economy.”

It is worth noting that China’s policies for ensuring employment and people’s livelihood are being effective. In the first three quarters, 8.98 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the annual target and tasks were basically completed. The unemployment rate in China’s national urban survey in September was 5.4%, showing a steady but declining trend. 

At the same time, price increases are moderate, and residents’ incomes are also picking up. In the first three quarters, the national per capita disposable income actually increased by 0.6%, basically in line with the 0.7% economic growth in the same period. It can be said that while preventing and controlling the epidemic and protecting the lives and health of the people

The Chinese government has continuously increased its efforts to bail out enterprises and disadvantaged groups, and keep employment, the biggest livelihood of the people, has played a vital role in the later economic recovery.

British Standard Chartered Bank CEO Bill Winters said in an interview recently that Beijing’s response measures have set a record of “very, very few” corporate bankruptcies, and “rarely” unemployment in the early stages of the health crisis. There are not so many “lags” in the economic recovery. 

He praised the unexpected return to growth of the world’s second largest economy, indicating that it seems to have found a “magic bullet” to deal with the new coronavirus pandemic. 

The economic data of China’s gradual improvement have also proven time and time again that after the outbreak, the Chinese government’s strategy to protect lives and control the epidemic is crucial and effective.

In the next stage, whether it is from the demand side, the production side, or the confidence and vitality shown by the entire market, China’s economic recovery in the first three quarters will continue to be maintained. 

From the demand side, during the “Eleventh” Golden Week just past, 637 million people traveled,

nearly 100 million people watched movies, and about 1.6 trillion yuan in retail and catering key monitoring enterprise sales…

These fresh data clearly show The demand of Chinese consumers is picking up. From the perspective of the production side, the stuck and blocked points in the supply

chain are constantly being opened up, and the industrial cycle is continuously improving. For example, China’s national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.7% in the third quarter, up 2.3% from the second quarter. 

Among them, the automobile manufacturing industry rebounded by

3 percentage points, and the general equipment manufacturing industry rebounded by 1.7 percentage points.

More importantly, the confidence of market players is increasing. People have seen that the Chinese government’s relief policy has achieved remarkable results.

From January to August, the new tax cuts and fees were 1.88 trillion yuan. At the same time, corporate profits continued to grow. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above

designated size increased by 19.1% year-on-year, a positive increase for four consecutive months. 

From the perspective of business expectations, the manufacturing

purchasing manager index in September was 51.5%, and the non-manufacturing business activity was 55.9%.

Both of these indexes were above the threshold for 7 consecutive months. As Chinese officials have said, in the fourth quarter of

this year and throughout the year, the Chinese economy

“has a foundation, conditions, and confidence” to maintain its current momentum.

As the world’s second largest economy, the gradual improvement in

China’s economy will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the recovery of the world economy. 

In the latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund raised China’s economic forecast for 2020 to 1.9%. China is expected to become the only major global economy that will achieve positive growth this year. 

At the same time, the agency expects China’s economic growth next year as high as 8.2%. 

On the whole, the fundamentals of the overall upturn of the Chinese economy have not changed. 

At the same time, we must also note that the current overseas epidemic situation

is still severe, the international environment is unstable and uncertainty is rising.

The foundation for maintaining a sustained and stable economic recovery still needs further progress. Consolidate. In the next step,

China will continue to deepen reform and opening up under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, promote high-quality economic development, and strive to complete

the annual economic and social development goals and tasks, so that the “China” economic

train will steadily move forward on the track of recovery , To contribute to the global economic recovery within its capacity.

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