The Financial Times website published an article entitled “Agreement has been reached, and now Britain needs a post-Brexit vision” on December 24th, saying that so far, the British government has made little word about its plan, about the post-Brexit Britain, its economy and its There is no clear vision for the status of the world.
It is even more unclear whether a government that has taken many improper measures in response to the novel coronavirus can lead a traumatized country through an unusual period of change in the future. The full text is excerpted as follows:
About 54 months after the Brexit referendum in the UK, the UK and the European Union finally reached an agreement on future trade relations. There is a general sense of relief.
Some people say that it is certainly better to reach an agreement than not to reach an agreement. Similar to the return of terms of trade before the birth of the EU single market in 1993, the United Kingdom has successfully avoided the economic disaster caused by the coronavirus epidemic and the chaos of a no-deal Brexit.
France’s recent cross-strait freight ban is a sense of chaos. However, in the long run, this is destined to be a very thin agreement.
Under the current agreement, the EU imposes zero tariffs and zero quotas on all British goods, including agricultural and fish products, as well as other trade facilitation measures, which goes further than other free trade agreements signed by the EU with third parties.
But services with a high trade surplus with the EU in the UK are largely excluded. In addition, as the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and Customs Union, some new regulations will make trade and investment between the two sides more difficult and expensive.
This is the first free trade agreement in the world to consciously increase rather than reduce barriers. The UK will start to “independence”, but face unpleasant frictions with the EU, especially in the service industry.
The economic impact in this regard is considerable. The government estimates that in the long run, Britain’s per capita national income will be about 5% less than that of staying in the EU, mainly due to additional non-tariff barriers.
It is estimated that the short-term losses caused by the loss of market access will reach about 1% of British national income.
This reflects Johnson’s strategy of restoring sovereignty at the cost of EU market access – that is, to “recover control”. Once the dust of the agreement is settled, the extent to which his goal – in controlling fishing sea areas and leveling competition – will be more obvious.
Johnson reclaimed British sovereignty, but how to use sovereignty will be limited by the reality of world interdependence. We hope that the Prime Minister respects economic, geographical and political needs and establishes lasting relations with the EU as a non-member state.
The real importance of the Brexit trade agreement is that it provides conditions for a friendly break-up between the two sides and leaves room for future cooperation, including cooperation on issues such as security and counter-terrorism.
It is wise to reduce friction with the EU, especially in the financial field, over time, that the UK’s primary priority will be to reduce frictions with the EU, particularly in the financial sector, by seeking more trade facilitation and market access agreements.
So far, the British government has hardly revealed its plan, and there is no clear vision for the post-Brexit Britain, its economy and its position in the world. It is even more unclear whether a government that has taken many improper measures in response to the novel coronavirus can lead a traumatized country through an unusual period of change in the future.
The UK is now facing a more contagious coronavirus and will need to carry out mass vaccinations in the first few months of next year. But Johnson should have set aside time for the rebuilding of the government, a move made possible by the departure of some Brexit officials last month from Downing Street.
He should form a “talented government” and choose officials according to his ability rather than blind loyalty and Brexit enthusiasm.
Brexit has been completed. The Johnson administration has reopened Britain’s relationship with its largest trading partner, opening a new chapter in the history of the country 47 years after Britain’s accession to the European Union (European Economic Community). Now the government must restart itself.