January 4th – A comprehensive report shows that the public support of British Prime Minister Johnson and the ruling Conservative Party plummeted due to dissatisfaction with the British public’s handling of the coronavirus epidemic and Brexit negotiations.
If the general election is held immediately, the Conservative Party may not be able to maintain a majority in Parliament.
The poll, a data research firm Focaldata, conducted in December 2020, using a more precise “multiple regression post-stratification” (MRP) to reach more than 22,000 voters by different constituencies.
At that time, it was at a time when Britain had a more transmitting variant of the virus, the authorities stopped the “Christmas bubble” at the last minute, the blockade of the United Kingdom by many European countries, and the continued to increase uncertainty before the end of the Brexit transition period.
In the 2019 general election, Johnson led the Conservative Party to a complete victory, with an 80-seat majority in Congress.
The poll predicts that in the general election to be held no later than 2024, the Conservative Party will lose 81 seats and lose a majority advantage, while the Labor Party will have 82 seats, with 284 seats and 282 seats respectively, less than half.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to take 57 of Scotland’s 59 seats and may form a coalition government with the Labor Party.
Polls also believe that the Labor Party can recover lost land in the north, central and Wells, reflecting the new leader’s successful reconstruction of the Labor Party’s “Red Wall” hamlet.
Overall, Labour would receive 37.7% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Conservative Party at 35.6%.
Johnson himself is also at risk of defeat.
In the last election, he won the seat in London’s Uxbridge constituency by only 5,034 votes, the lowest of the current prime minister since 1924.
Polls predict that he will lose in the next general election.
However, Conservative supporters said that the poll ended before the Brexit trade agreement was reached, and said that the Conservative Party’s popularity had subsequently recovered.