December 24, 2020, local time, European Commission President Von der Lein held a press conference in Brussels, stating that the EU and Britain have reached a consensus on a trade agreement that has attracted much attention from the outside world.
In the early morning of June 24, 2016, the final vote for the “Brexit” referendum was calculated, and 52% of the total votes in favor of the vote finally allowed the UK to begin a 4-year “Brexit” process, during which Came Lun and Theresa May left their posts one after another, and the “Brexit” was finally completed under the third prime minister Boris Johnson.
Cameron’s big bet-bet to win over Scotland but lose to all of Europe
On January 23, 2013, the then British Prime Minister Cameron gave a speech on the prospects of the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
At that time, he promised that if he won the election in 2015, he would approve the necessary laws within one year and formulate new relations with the European Union. in principle.
A speech intended to win support for his re-election, but played the prelude to his curtain call as British Prime Minister.
But all of this must start from Scotland a year ago.
From the perspective of resource allocation, the petroleum resources of the North Sea make the petrochemical industry center of the entire UK located in Scotland.
Some Scots believe that “the British are taking advantage of themselves” and accuse the British government of unfair distribution of petroleum resources, resulting in separation. mood.
From the perspective of historical origin, the United Kingdom is composed of four parts: Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
However, the history that formed the United Kingdom was full of violent conquests, and after the reunification of the empire, each region enjoyed high autonomy, so the United Kingdom Separatist movements have often appeared in history.
When the Scottish National Party defeated the Labour Party and successfully mastered the Scottish Parliament in 2007, the separatist tendency in Scotland became more serious.
On March 21, 2013, Salmond, the then Chief Minister of Scotland, announced that Scotland will hold a referendum on September 18, 2014 to determine whether Scotland will be independent from the United Kingdom.
According to the voting rules, only more than half of the supporting votes are required for Scotland to become an independent country. Faced with this secession of the country, then British Prime Minister Cameron immediately expressed his opposition.
In order to retain Scotland and to recall the recognition of the Scottish people to the British Empire, Cameron gave a speech to Scotland on September 15, 2014, which was described as “sincere and emotional” by the majority of the British media.
In the end, the Scottish independence referendum failed with a “no” vote of 55.8%.
Salmond, the initiator of the referendum, also announced his resignation. But Cameron’s words in his speech, “If you don’t like me, I won’t be here forever.” It is considered that he used his prime ministerial career as a bet in exchange for the trust of the Scottish people.
Although Cameron won Scotland, the Scots, whose separatist sentiment was still high, laid hidden dangers for him, his successor Theresa May and the future political direction of Britain.
When the time came to 2015, the new British general elections arrived as scheduled. In order to fulfill his previous promise, Cameron decided to continue the “Brexit” referendum.
Previously, due to the impact of the European debt crisis, the United Kingdom, which also belongs to the European Union, had to bear the corresponding economic burden.
In addition, the refugee crisis that broke out in the Middle East led to a large number of refugees entering Europe, and the EU’s final admission policy forced the British Isles, which were originally outside the European continent, to accept refugees.
At the same time, as a member of the European Union, the high membership fees that the United Kingdom needs to pay each year make conservative politicians and the public full of dislike for the European Union, which gave birth to the idea of ”Brexit”.
Relying on these people who hate the EU, apart from the Labor Party, the Conservative Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party, the political power of the Independent Party, whose purpose is to secede from the EU, has grown rapidly.
Out of consideration for winning the election and suppressing the Independent Party, Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party at the time, proposed a “Brexit” referendum.
According to media analysis, Cameron’s move was more out of partisan interests, not really wanting to leave the EU. According to Cameron’s plan, “Brexit” should have been a symbolic measure to restore public opinion. Obtaining more rights and interests from the EU is the expected effect of Cameron’s “Brexit” referendum.
However, all of Cameron’s plans failed on June 24, 2016. On the same day, he also announced his resignation.
On July 13, 2016, Cameron drove to Buckingham Palace, met with Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, and then left sadly. Soon, another car drove into Buckingham Palace, and it was Cameron’s successor, Teresa May.
Theresa May-Coming for “Brexit” but not leaving for “Brexit”
Unlike her predecessor, Cameron, and her successor, Johnson, Teresa May is not a “daddy”. Before entering politics, her work was mainly related to banking and finance.
In 1986, Teresa May officially entered politics after being elected as the City of London Councillor. Unlike Cameron’s rocket-like rise, Teresa May has served as a member of the City of London, a member of the lower house of the British Parliament, the chairman of the Conservative Party, and the Secretary of the Interior.
From stepping into politics to temporarily taking over as British Prime Minister, Theresa May spent 30 years. Years of political experience has allowed her to gain praise from her party supporters for her “prudence” and “seriousness”. Therefore, despite her hasty takeover, she was once favored by many parties.
But before formally embarking on the “Brexit” matter, Theresa May first held a general election. And this election also laid a hidden danger for her delay in launching a “Brexit” plan that can be approved by the parliament.
On April 18, 2017, the then British Prime Minister Theresa May announced at 10 Downing Street that a new round of elections will be held 50 days later on June 8, which is three years ahead of the original scheduled May 2020 .
In her speech on April 18, Theresa May said that she was “reluctant” to hold the general election earlier because opposition forces inside and outside the parliament continued to challenge the Conservative government’s “Brexit” plan.
In fact, the obstacles encountered by Theresa May originated from the British political system. Because in the British general election, it is not the prime minister that is actually elected, but the ruling party.
The leader of the party who wins the general election automatically becomes the prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Since the leader of the Conservative Party when it won in 2015 was Cameron, after Cameron stepped down, power was directly transferred to Theresa May, which would lead to a separation between public opinion and the new prime minister, and both within the Conservative Party and the opposition parties. On this ground, oppose Teresa May’s series of political issues.
In order to realize the so-called “popularly elected prime minister,” Theresa May had to re-elect during her term. However, it is not unsure that Theresa May organized an early election.
The polls at the time showed that 53% of the people believed that Theresa May’s “Brexit” posture was beneficial to the UK, and more than half of the people believed that Trey Shah has performed satisfactorily since taking office.
However, the early election also caused the Conservative Party that proposed a “Brexit” referendum to lose a large number of parliamentary seats.
On June 10, 2017, the final results of the new round of elections showed that the Conservative Party won 318 seats, the Labor Party won 261 seats, and the Liberal Democratic Party won 13 seats.
The Scottish National Party, which had previously called for Scottish independence, won 35 seats. This election also opened a long-term seesaw between the Conservative Party and the Labor Party on the “Brexit” plan.
On October 3, 2018, while Teresa May was preparing to negotiate with the European Union, her “awkward dance” at the annual meeting of the Conservative Party made her an instant hot spot on the Internet.
According to Teresa May’s own explanation later, this dance can show that “she is confident to lead Britain and her cabinet members”.
It seems to have confirmed her self-confidence. On November 13, 2018, Theresa May reached an agreement with the European Union on the draft agreement on “Brexit” and set the date of “Brexit” on March 29, 2019.
However, the solution to the Northern Ireland issue in the draft was opposed by many members of the British House of Commons, which eventually led to the resignation of several cabinet ministers in the Theresa May government.
After Theresa May formed the cabinet again, Theresa May submitted the draft three times but was opposed by the House of Commons.
On January 15, 2019, there were 432 votes against and 202 votes in support; on March 13 of the same year, 391 votes against and 242 votes in support; on March 29, 344 votes against and 286 votes in favor.
Although the number of negative votes continues to decrease, but the repeated opposition has also allowed Teresa May to taste the evil results of the earlier election.
The opposition to Theresa May’s “Brexit” plan is basically divided into two factions, one is the Labour Party led by Corbyn, and the other is Boris Johnson, also a Conservative Party.
The former opposed “Brexit” and tried to initiate a referendum to stay in Europe.
The latter advocated severing all political and economic ties with the EU and withdrawing from all EU economic and trade agreements, hoping that the UK could withdraw its tariff autonomy and the power to independently formulate economic policies.
In the end, as none of the three “Brexit” drafts submitted was passed in the House of Commons, on May 25, 2019, Teresa May announced at the Prime Minister’s residence at 10 Downing Street that she would resign from the Conservative Party on June 7. Leadership.
At the end of this speech, she choked for a while, “Serving the country I love deeply is the glory of my life.”
Although he did not successfully complete the most important “Brexit” mission since taking over, Teresa May has indeed achieved certain results on the Scottish issue.
When she announced her resignation that day, Scottish Chief Minister Sturgeon posted on her personal social account: “I wish Teresa May all the best. There are profound differences between me and her that are hard to bridge-especially in her In dealing with Brexit.
May ignores Scotland’s interests. However, the prime minister’s job is very difficult-especially in this era-she deserves to be thanked.”
Not only did she gain recognition from political opponents, but Teresa May also gained certain recognition among the Scottish people. A poll in 2017 showed that Scotland’s support for another referendum on independence has dropped to 44%, slightly lower than 45% at the time of the first referendum in 2014.
Detailed data shows that 51% of Scottish people support in recent years. A referendum was held, and only 31% of the people supported the referendum as soon as possible.
A survey conducted by The Telegraph in April 2017 showed that the proportion of Scottish people who supported an independence referendum dropped to 40%.
In fact, Teresa May made great sacrifices for the Conservative Party to successfully promote Brexit in the days to come.
Johnson-casual, funny but completed the “Brexit” grand cause
On July 23, 2019, Boris Johnson, with his messy blond hair, was elected leader of the Conservative Party. The next day, he took over power from the previously opposed Teresa May and became the new British Prime Minister.
To some extent, without Johnson’s opposition to Theresa May, there would be no new prime minister today.
Prior to Teresa May’s resignation, the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson gained a huge advantage in the general election held on December 13, 2019.
It eventually won 365 seats and became an absolute majority party. However, in addition to the re-election opportunity brought about by Theresa May’s resignation, Boris Johnson’s closeness, personality and even some funny personal images in the media have won the Conservative Party more support from voters.
More importantly, Boris’s attitude on the issue of “Brexit” is far more determined than Resha May, which also brings hope to the British people who have been tortured by the “Brexit” agenda for a long time.
According to polls, May’s “soft Brexit” plan split the original target voters. A large part of the people who were dissatisfied with May’s Brexit plan switched to the Liberal Democratic Party. This also led to Teresa. ·An important reason for May’s defeat in the re-election.
In addition, as time goes by, more and more British people will lose patience with a “soft Brexit”, and Boris Johnson’s tough attitude is destined to gain more recognition.
In the first few days of taking office in the UK, Boris Johnson stated that the UK can reach a new and better “Brexit” agreement with the EU, but the UK will also prepare for a “no-deal Brexit” with a tough attitude.
Obvious. On January 22, 2020, after Johnson won the general election, his “Brexit” plan was finally passed in the House of Commons. The rest is to negotiate specific matters with the EU.
On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union, starting the planned 11-month transition period of “Brexit”.
The negotiations between the UK and the EU on future relations and economic and trade agreements will also be finalized in these 11 months.
However, after only one round of negotiations, the new crown epidemic hit, and Britain and Europe had to suspend negotiations. During the resumption of negotiations, EU representative Michel Barnier and British representative David Frost have successively diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia.
Even Boris Johnson himself was diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia on March 27, which also added variables to the inadequate negotiations. It was not until April 20 that the two parties reopened a new round of negotiations.
But during this period, the contradictions between Britain and Europe have gradually emerged. During the negotiations from April to December, it has been difficult for the UK and Europe to reach agreement on the two issues of fisheries and a level playing field.
Fishery alone actually includes at least two major differences in the allocation of fishery resources and the integrity of sovereignty.
In the 1960s, European countries such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany signed the “London Fisheries Convention” with the United Kingdom. According to the convention, fishing boats from France and other countries can fish in British waters.
In the 1980s, the European Community, the predecessor of the European Union, began to implement a common fishery policy, which later evolved into the EU common fishery policy. According to these policies, EU countries will open their maritime exclusive economic zones to each other.
The common fishery policy has brought considerable benefits to EU countries.
But from the perspective of British fishermen, the deal was not worthwhile. Due to the common fishery policy, only two-thirds of the German fisheries catch comes from British fishing grounds.
If the British closes the North Sea fishing grounds, it may cause 100 million euros in losses to German fisheries. Therefore, when the UK held a “Brexit” referendum in 2016, more than 90% of British fishermen agreed to leave the European Union.
In addition, because French President Macron needs to face the 2022 election, opposition leader Marina Le Pen has a large number of voters in the two northern French provinces with developed fisheries.
If Macron is not tough on fisheries, more local voters. Will fall to Le Pen. Not only that, the territorial sea itself is also in the category of national sovereignty. There are naturally huge differences between Britain and Europe on how to divide the sea areas.
As for the fair trade environment, it involves tariff formulation, government subsidies, industrial protection, and other areas related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.
Earlier, the House of Commons passed the “Internal Market Act” on September 14, which essentially gave the UK the absolute power to manage the border issue of Northern Ireland, which was previously difficult to resolve.
Similar to the issue of Scottish independence, Northern Ireland, as part of the United Kingdom, also has serious separatist tendencies.
In order to appease the local people, the British and Irish governments signed the “Northern Ireland Peace Agreement” (also known as the “Belfast Agreement”), allowing the free movement of people and goods between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
However, since Ireland is an EU country, after the UK “Brexit”, EU and UK goods and personnel can still circulate between Ireland and Northern Ireland in accordance with the provisions of the Northern Ireland Peace Agreement.
However, Articles 42 and 45 of the Internal Market Act ignored the Northern Ireland Peace Agreement and allowed the British government to unilaterally determine the movement of goods and people in Northern Ireland. The bill triggered strong opposition within the European Union and even the British government.
With the gradual approach of the deadline, the risk of “no-deal Brexit” has intensified, and Boris Johnson’s pressure has increased accordingly. On December 7, the British government made concessions to abandon the disputed part of the Internal Market Act.
The main dispute between Britain and Europe is only one item of fishery. On the 23rd, French media reported that a source from the European Union revealed that the UK had made a “huge concession” on the fisheries issue, allowing this last problem to be resolved.
In the end, on the 24th, this four-year long “Brexit” long-distance run by three prime ministers finally ended.
“The sequelae of Brexit” is still unclear
Scotland’s independence referendum becomes the biggest hidden danger
Although the “Brexit” has basically come to an end and the United Kingdom has avoided the “no-deal Brexit” situation, it is still unknown whether the two sides can achieve mutually satisfactory fair trade in the future.
Whether the concessions made by Boris Johnson in the final negotiations will trigger a new round of political turmoil will also be one of the “after-effects” left by the negotiations.
And will the Scottish independence referendum that happened earlier in the Cameron era happen again during Boris Johnson’s term? Will the Scottish National Party leader Sturgeon’s promise of “Brexit, Scotland will be independent” as expected?
The current mutated new coronavirus is still continuing to have a negative impact on the UK.
When will the new crown epidemic go away, and how many “after-effects” of “Brexit”? All this has yet to be answered.