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Bremer, President of Eurasia Group: Biden is unlikely to bring great changes to the world.

Biden appoints cabinet officials to form a dedicated team to fight climate change

Photo: U.S. President-elect Biden

Reference News Network reported on December 18th. Japan Economic News published an article entitled “The United States and International Order under the Biden Regime” on December 17, written by Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasian Group of the United States. The full text is excerpted as follows:

Many are frustrated by the election of former Vice President Biden from the Democratic Party as the next president of the United States, but more people are euphoric. Supporters and opponents alike predict that the Biden administration will make a big difference in the world. However, I have to say that this possibility is very low.

First of all, judging from the domestic situation in the United States, the presidential election in November clearly reflects that the United States is more divided than any democratic developed country. This is a very serious situation for countries expected to dominate the international order. It not only includes political divisions such as left and right, institutional and anti-institution, but also inconsistent views on the prevention and control of COVID-19. Concern has diminished by both the public and politicians about whether the United States should serve as the “police of the world”.

The division also affects the American people’s perception of free trade. For people living in distress, they value themselves more benefits than the overall benefits of the expansion of the world economy.

As a result, the American people no longer pay attention to the United States’s emergence as a world leader in the field of economy and security in the second half of the twentieth century. Biden should not be a divisive person like President Trump who will step down recently, but no matter who is the President of the United States in the future, a four-year term, two eight-year term alone will not solve this structural problem.

The world situation has changed greatly. Even if the American people and political elites are eager to re-enter the role of world leader, it will certainly not change much. The European Union is worried about internal antagonism. The EU and Brexit Britain are opposing in the negotiation of free trade agreements. The European Union demanded that in revitalizing the economy hit by the COVID-19 epidemic, the allocation of recovery funds is conditional on the principle of “rule of law” and the use of laws to restrict the abuse of power. Hungary and Poland oppose this approach and refuse to approve the budget (before a compromise is reached).

Russia is such a country that is more willing to find value from complicating problems than constructively cooperating with other geopolitical powers. China is a powerful country with increasing influence, but it is completely incompatible with the order of the twentieth century and cannot form a unique international order at present.

The last reason is the existence of international institutions such as NATO, WHO and the United Nations Security Council working together to make the international order work more effectively. Trump pointed out the shortcomings of these international institutions during his four years, which were for political purposes, but there was no actual action to correct the shortcomings.

The core of the problem is that these institutions reflect international relations more in 1950 than in 2020. China’s rise, cyberattacks, climate change, drone war, data privacy, etc., these long-term and urgent issues for the world, many of which did not exist at the beginning of the establishment of international institutions.

Biden said he would support multilateral cooperation to address these issues. If international institutions are funded, the situation will indeed improve. However, these institutions must carry out fundamental and comprehensive reform. These reforms are difficult to achieve in peacetime, let alone in times of epidemic.

The birth of the Biden administration was a major event. Needless to say, the change of diplomatic posture, and the attitude of attaching importance to and urgency to climate change issues is also welcomed. After the establishment of the Biden administration, in order to guide the world to carry forward the necessary international institutional reform and coordination, it must be able to cooperate with like-minded allies.

However, it takes effort, money, concessions and creativity, as well as patience and time.

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